2.5 times increase in net profit 14 car companies reported mid-yearly news

As of August 26, a total of 14 vehicle manufacturers released semi-annual reports, and the results were generally positive. Due to the increase in gross profit margin and the low base last year, the growth rate of the automotive industry's profit far exceeds the sales growth rate. In the second quarter, the overall performance of the automobile segment increased month-on-month, which was beyond the expectation of many people. However, analysts said that the third quarter was a relatively low performance during the year.

The agency misunderstood in the second quarter

There are 21 listed companies in the auto industry according to the SWS industry classification, and there are 20 * ST Changhe, which has changed its main business. As of August 26, 14 auto listed companies have disclosed semi-annual reports. According to the statistics of Wind Information, the 14 companies in the first half of the year achieved total revenue growth of approximately 1 times year-on-year; net profit increased by approximately 2.5 times year-on-year.

In the first half of the year, net profit increased at the forefront of companies including Jianghuai Automobile, Shanghai Automotive, Jinlong Automobile, and Dongfeng Motor. The net profits of these four companies both increased by more than two times year-on-year. The hippocampus, Ankai bus, Yaxing bus, and Zhongtong bus have turned losses into profits.

In the first half of the year, Shanghai Automotive achieved operating revenue of RMB147.07 billion, an increase of 140.06% year-on-year; net profit of RMB5.87 billion, an increase of 306.03% year-on-year; and earnings per share of RMB0.689. JAC achieved an operating income of 16.16 billion yuan, an increase of 73.31% year-on-year, and a net profit of 489 million yuan, an increase of 328.42% year-on-year; earnings per share of 0.38 yuan. In contrast, the growth of FAW's car performance was slightly lower than the same period of last year. In the first half of the year, the company realized operating income of 17.9 billion yuan, an increase of 53.97% year-on-year; net profit of 1.3365 billion yuan, an increase of 149.69% year-on-year; earnings per share of 0.8212 yuan.

Some companies have not disclosed the semi-annual report, but the performance forecast shows that the situation in the first half is also very good. For example, FAW Xiali said that due to the company's share of Tianjin FAW Toyota's production and sales increased significantly compared to the same period last year, the company's profitability improved, the company is expected to achieve a net profit of 269.49 million yuan -2.9431 billion yuan in the first half, an increase of 420% -470%.

The increase in sales volume is undoubtedly an important reason for the growth of the auto company's performance. According to the data released by the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, from January to June, 892.73 million vehicles and 9,061,100 vehicles were sold and sold, respectively, a year-on-year growth of 48.84% and 47.67%, respectively.

In quarterly quarter, the overall performance in the second quarter increased. The total net profit of the 14 companies in the second quarter increased by more than 5% month-on-month. GF Securities researcher Yang Huachao said that this is contrary to many people's expectations. Although high inventory, price war and other news are everywhere, but the manufacturer's guide price is relatively stable, the dealer is not in the state of loss as the outside world imagined, so the car company performance growth .

Although listed companies in the automotive sector performed well in the second quarter, institutional investors continued to reduce their holdings on the basis of reducing their auto stocks in the first quarter. Institutional investors’ shareholding ratios showed a declining month-on-month ratio. This is in stark contrast to the sequential increase in car prices in the second quarter. Automobile companies with more shares in the company’s shareholding ratio have more concepts than others, such as Shuguang and Yaxing buses.

Yang Huachao said that the shareholding ratio of institutional investors in the second quarter is a bottom. Everyone thinks that the automobile industry has become worse, and the actual situation is not the case. The agency has already increased its holdings in the third quarter. The recent rebound of auto stocks is due to recognition. at this point.

Increased gross profit margin year-on-year

Comparing the year-on-year increase in car sales growth and net profit in the first half of the year, it can be found that the increase in net profit is even higher. Although some semi-annual reports of auto companies have not yet been disclosed, analysts believe that the overall net profit growth of auto companies in the first half of the year is higher than the increase in sales. According to statistics of Wind Information, 12 out of 14 companies had their gross profit margins increased in the first half of the year.

Guo Qing Securities researcher Wang Qingtao said that the increase in gross profit margin was due to the fact that vehicle prices remained relatively strong in the first half of the year, while production costs decreased year-on-year. The higher capacity utilization rate of automakers also led to lower costs. A secretary of a listed automobile company stated that the market sees a slowdown in sales growth, which is a concern for the auto sector, but at the same time it must see a drop in costs.

Benjamin Gan, deputy manager of risk management at Coface Greater China, and Xavier Farcot, deputy managing director, believe that steel prices remain relatively stable, thanks to China's huge iron ore reserves last year. And the fall in iron ore prices, as well as long-term contracts signed by automakers and steelmakers. The demand for steel in the market has also slowed down due to real estate control policies.

From the perspective of the absolute amount of change in gross profit margin, there are hippocampal shares, Jianghuai Automobiles, and Yaxing buses. Haima's gross sales margin for the first half of the year was 12.0692%, an increase of 7.2184 percentage points compared with 4.8508% in the same period of last year. In the first half of 2009, the loss of hippocampus shares was RMB 94.49 million. This year, it turned losses into losses, which is also an important reason for the company’s gross profit growth to increase. Yaxing bus lost 24,180,000 yuan in the first half of 2009, and JAC's car segment also lost money last year.

Looking at the quarter, the gross profit margin of automotive companies is showing signs of falling. An industry source believes that raw material prices have increased in the second quarter, but this should not be too worried. As companies are more cautious, raw material prices will soon fall after rising slightly, and the gross margin in the third quarter may exceed the second quarter. Yang Huachao believes that the third quarter gross margin will be relatively stable compared with the second quarter. Wang Qingtao expressed concern about the situation of the gross profit rate in the third quarter. In the third quarter, it was the traditional off-season sales season, the car prices would further fall, and it would be difficult for the gross profit margin to increase year-on-year.

The third quarter ushered in low performance

Although the second-quarter results increased year-on-year, the third-quarter results were not optimistic. Analysts generally believe that the automotive company's third-quarter results are lows during the year. Wang Qingtao stated that according to the agency's forecast, the performance in the second half of the year is 60% of the first half, and the third quarter is definitely worse than the fourth quarter, and the situation is not very optimistic.

According to data released by the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, from January to July, the production and sales of automobiles reached 10.2131 million vehicles and 10.2062 million vehicles, respectively, an increase of 43.64% and 42.65% year-on-year, respectively. The growth rate slowed down by 5.20 percentage points and 5.02 percentage points respectively over the first half of the year. In July, China produced 1,109,600 vehicles, a decrease of 3.77% compared with the previous month, and sold 1,805,600 vehicles, a decrease of 4.95% from the previous period.

The data released by the China Automotive Technology and Research Center also shows that as production and sales decline, inventory has started to rise. In July, the momentum of the month-by-month growth of the car inventory cycle continued, from 55 days in June to 58 days. Among them, the passenger car inventory period increased from 57 days to 60 days, and the commercial vehicle inventory period increased from 49 days to 50 days.

Wang Qingtao said that although it was off-season, sales in July were lower than in February, which was not normal, and September in the third quarter was only the starting point of the previous year's peak season and the performance would not be so good. Zhao Hang, director of the China National Automobile Research Institute, predicts that vehicle production may continue to decline in August due to factors such as high-temperature summer vacations and equipment maintenance. Since August is the off-season automobile sales over the years, and dealer inventory pressure is greater, the auto market is expected to weaken in August.

A car company person told the China Securities Journal that sales decline in July had a certain relationship with car companies’ initiative to clear inventory, and they did not press the dealers. The car companies expect better in the fourth quarter. Everyone is actively producing and stocking the following market. In fact, car sales in August have shown signs of improvement.

Yang Huachao also believes that there is no need to be pessimistic. With the improvement of terminal sales and the two-week maintenance of equipment from July to August, inventory will reach the bottom by the end of August. Destocking will prevent price wars in the industry. At the same time, with the declining steel prices, the stagnation of electronic component prices, and the depreciation of the euro, automakers' purchase costs will drop significantly, thereby maintaining the stability of the industry's profitability. Although the data in the third quarter will not be too good-looking, it will be too late to wait until the annual report data come out. It is time for the agency to ship.