The real reason for the sharp increase in China's grain stocks: grain farmers reduce food stocks

The real reason for the sharp increase in China's grain stocks: grain farmers reduce food stocks

The reduction of grain stocks by farmers of grain is the real reason for the sharp increase in national grain stocks; more and more small farmers choose to buy commodity grain instead of grain, which is the expression of food marketization. The linear growth of a single variety of grain, such as corn, has long mapped out the developmental predicament of China's agricultural employment structure and unreasonable land management.

In ancient and modern China and foreign countries, food security is the primary task of governing the country.

After 2012, the central government put forward a new strategy for food security. The "rice theory", "bottom line theory" and "red line theory" all have a general understanding of breaking theory and practice. In recent years, the most frequent words surrounding the development of food include: rising costs, upside down food prices, marketization, three-fold increase, and North Grain South. During the two sessions of the country this year, Chen Xiwen gave a new theory that "food security has been transformed into industrial security." Today, more attention is paid to the “food stocks” in the domestic community. Data from the food sector show that the total amount of grain purchases in the country last year exceeded 400 billion kilograms; from 2011 to 2015, the market purchased more than 410 billion kilograms of grain.

At the end of last year, the domestic and international spreads of wheat, rice and corn were 771 yuan, 745 yuan and 790 yuan per ton respectively. The director of the State Grain Bureau therefore believes that “the domestic and international food prices are reversed due to the low international food prices, and the internal and external factors such as the implementation of food price and storage subsidies in China have led to the current high food stocks.” Last June, the National Development and Reform Commission, The Ministry of Finance and the State Food Bureau jointly issued the "Food Storage and Supply Security Safety Protection Project Construction Plan (2015-2020)", which requires that by the end of 2015, the newly added new storage capacity of the country will be 50 million tons, and the maintenance and renovation of the "dangerous old warehouse" The ratio reached 60%. In response to the sharp increase in the amount of commodity grain, from 2009 to 2014, the central government funds have subsidized 34.8 million tons of local and central enterprises. As of 2014, the total size of the grain storage capacity invested by the state was 92.2 million tons.

The reduction of grain stocks by farmers of grain is the real reason for the sharp increase in the country's grain stocks; more and more farmers choose to buy commodity grain instead of grain, which is the expression of food marketization. The author feels extremely deep in the rural areas of Yunnan, Hunan, Sichuan, Chongqing, Jiangxi, Jiangsu, Heilongjiang, Guangdong, etc. There are two types of farmers in different rural areas in different periods: one, buy food, or eat a small amount of food. The production cycle; Second, the grain is only for income, mostly for the suitable grain-growing areas with less labor and more arable land, and a small number of modern farmers are planted on a large scale. The increase in grain production does not necessarily increase the country's food stocks, which can be confirmed by the increase or decrease in China's grain output.

The year-on-year increase in grain stocks is actually a by-product of the transformation of farmers' income structure and the improvement of living standards. According to statistics, in 2012, the per capita wage income of rural residents in China accounted for 44%, and operating income accounted for 45%, which together accounted for 89% of total income; among them, operating income was 74% (1993), wages. Only 18% (1985) when income is low. After 2000, the non-agricultural sector relied on higher wage returns than agriculture to absorb a large amount of labor, and the aging and extensive production of rural agricultural labor in various regions became more and more obvious.

As early as 2012, the relevant person in charge of the National Grain Administration has proposed that “for many years, the food stored by farmers in China has reached 500 billion jin per year, accounting for about 50% of the total grain output of the year.” According to the survey, 61% of the farmers have only 7 months of rations, and 10% of the farmers only have enough food for three months, which is equivalent to about 29% of the “zero grain” farmers. According to a survey conducted by the grain department of Shazhenxi Town, Zigui County, Hubei Province in 2015, 60 households sold 6010 kilograms of grain, and the average household sold 100 kilograms of grain per year. The food commodity rate was 8.92%. Among them, corn sold 4,290 kg, and the average household sold 72 kg, accounting for 71.38% of the grain sales. The author surveyed in rural areas found that after 2005, most rural houses were not suitable for storing food. Furthermore, the farmers who can build reinforced concrete villas have long since departed from the agricultural land. Very few people grow food and need to store them. Only the main grain producing areas are left behind in rural areas for some small-scale farming, to Sichuan and Rice cultivation in Hunan is typical. As of 2014, the rural housing area has reached 24 billion square meters, compared with 6.4 billion square meters in 1979, more than doubled in more than 30 years; among them, the steel-concrete structure of rural housing construction accounts for about 50%, near In the past 10 years, the newly built reinforced concrete structures in rural areas have been more than 350 million square meters.

From the time interval between the significant reduction in grain production and the increase in production, it usually takes 8 to 10 years. The recent sharp increase in production began in 2007, and the grain output increased from 500 million tons to 600 million tons in six years. The increase in production was mostly corn. In 2015, the output was almost close to the peak. In terms of relatively low-yielding corn cultivation, its increase in production does not conform to economic laws. According to data from the National Development and Reform Commission, the average net profit per mu of vegetables in China was 2,070 yuan in 2014, about 10.1 times that of rice, 23.6 times that of wheat, and 25.30 times that of corn. In the case of apples, the net profit per mu was 3,481 yuan, 17 times that of rice, 39.6 times that of wheat, and 42.5 times that of corn.

It is true that China’s corn and wheat production and stocks have increased sharply, mainly due to the increase in planting area. Because the labor consumption of the two food crops is small, it is convenient for mechanized farming, and a large number of pesticides and fertilizers are used to save labor. In response to the sharp increase in the stocks of the two major food crops, the author's explanation is that the root cause is the structural shortage of agricultural labor, and small farmers or large-scale farmers will replant large amounts of agricultural land into corn and wheat, increasing the planting area; benefiting from chemical fertilizers and pesticides. The use of new seeds has also increased slightly per unit area. The accelerated scale, commercialization and mechanization have led to an increase in both production and commodity grain stocks. With the help of changes in corn production in a certain part of the South, it is possible to reverse or measure how serious the agricultural problems in the region are. The linear growth of a single variety of grain, such as corn, has long mapped out the agricultural employment structure and the unreasonable development difficulties and problems of land management.

(Original title: From the change of Tibetan food to the people to the storage of grain in the library)