The government will send 3-4 billion yuan in the second half of the expansion of energy-saving subsidies

Since the introduction of the first batch of “Energy-saving products and people-to-people projects” energy-saving vehicles (1.6-liter and lower passenger cars) promotion catalog on June 30, the three ministries announced the second batch of energy-saving vehicle promotion catalogs again on August 17. A total of 61 models from 30 brands of 12 automakers were selected, while some of the first batch of beneficiary automakers continued to supplement the models. Analysts believe that this will be the "big red envelope" that the government has distributed to the automotive market in the second half of the year, which can amount to 3-4 billion yuan, reflecting the government's determination to promote energy-saving vehicles. Among them, Chery, FAW-Volkswagen, and Changan Ford have become major beneficiaries.

Cars have been hailed as "machines that change the world," and they have brought us a series of problems such as energy security, environmental pollution, and global warming, while bringing us fast transportation. At present, energy conservation and emission reduction have become the primary task of the global automotive industry. The development of new energy automobile industry has become the strategic direction of China's auto industry.

As a result, in recent years, the country has intensively introduced a number of new energy vehicle industry development policies, which have effectively promoted the development of new energy industries. The most interesting ones are the Interim Measures for the Administration of Pilot Financial Aid Funds for Privately Purchased New Energy Vehicles and the Implementation Rules for the Promotion of Passenger Vehicles for Energy-Saving Products (1.6L and Below) for Energy-Saving Products and Huimin Project. The detailed rules shall be promoted nationwide. The central government shall provide one-time fixed subsidies for consumers to purchase energy-saving vehicles at a rate of RMB 3,000 per vehicle.

From the perspective of A-share listed self-owned branded companies, Haima and Changan have two short-listed models. Chery is the biggest beneficiary. Changan Ford Mazda, which is owned by Changan Automobile, is the shortlist for more cars, and Huayu Auto Parts is for FAW-Volkswagen, Changan Ford, and Dongfeng. Nissan and Chery Automobile have matching facilities. FAW Fuwei and FAW-Volkswagen will provide more direct and indirect benefits. The scope of this subsidy will be expanded.

In the current mainstream passenger car manufacturers, there are 1.6L following models but have not yet entered the first two batches of catalogs include: FAW Car, FAW Xiali, Shenlong Motors, SAIC, Geely Automobile, Hafeichanghe, Southeast Automotive, GAC Toyota.

"The announcement of the energy-saving subsidy model catalog will greatly stimulate the auto industry's vehicle sales to rebound in advance in August and September." Huachuang Securities researcher Gao Li said that two batches of energy-saving subsidy models will generate about 1.91% of terminal sales in August. Momentary growth rate, the chain will increase by 2.53% from the previous month in August. He believes that the publication speed of the energy-saving car promotion catalog exceeds market expectations, reflecting the government's strong determination to promote energy-saving vehicles. Judging from the published list of subsidies, the proportion of vehicles with a displacement of 1.6 liters or less in all passenger cars will continue to increase in the future, and the companies that adhered to the independent research and development of engines represented by JAC and Chery are subject to this policy. Strong support, and BYD's main models F3, F6, etc. are still not entered. The third batch will continue to be launched in the future. The frequency of the fourth batch will be accelerated and the coverage of energy-saving vehicle subsidies will continue to expand.

Liu Yuanrui, an analyst at Changjiang Securities, pointed out that there is a high level of structural inventory in the industry. If the market is sluggish, manufacturers will bear greater pressure to reduce prices. The current joint venture brands have lower price cuts and dealer pressure, and their own brand pressure is very high. . Although the price war in the industry is fierce, there is still room for the country's subsidies to mitigate the risk of decline in the profit of the auto manufacturers after the competition has intensified. The key to the follow-up trend of the industry is to see whether demand can boost demand.

Guojin Securities analysts also believe that the sales volume of the listed models accounted for about 20% of the total sales volume of domestic passenger vehicles, calculated at 3,000 yuan per vehicle, which will be a total amount distributed by the government to the automotive market in the second half of the year. Up to 3-4 billion yuan in "big red envelopes." However, this year, the macro environment is not significantly improved than in 2009, the actual subsidy quota has not increased significantly, and the demand for small-displacement cars/individual brands has been released to a great extent. Although subsidies have indeed boosted sales, Effect (expected to be within 2%), but it is difficult to fundamentally change the trend of decline.

The analyst pointed out that although sales of domestic small-displacement cars have a certain downside risk in the short term, in the long run, energy-saving and emission reduction is still an inevitable trend of the industry development, and “the fuel consumption of integrated working conditions is lower than the current standard by 20 The requirement of “about %” is not so easy to achieve, so the publication of this promotion catalogue can be understood as a review of the domestic automotive manufacturers' small-displacement engine technology.