Machinery industry steadily increases "double digits"

According to statistics from the National Bureau of Statistics, China's machinery industry achieved a total industrial output value and sales value of 18.41 trillion yuan and 18.04 trillion yuan in 2012, an increase of 12.64% and 12.54% year-on-year respectively. On a monthly basis, the accumulative growth rate of production and sales is basically between 11% and 13%, and it basically stabilized during the fourth quarter, which is significantly lower than the growth rate of more than 25% in the previous year. The industry has entered a period of moderate growth.

The growth rate of added value was below the industrial average for the first time in recent years. In 2012, the value-added of machinery industry increased by 8.4% year-on-year, a decrease of 6.7 percentage points from the previous year, and was lower than the national average growth rate of industry by 1.6 percentage points over the same period. For the first time in years, it was lower than the average growth rate of national industrial added value.

The growth rate of benefits has dropped significantly and profitability has decreased. The total amount of profits realized in the year totaled 1.23 trillion yuan, an increase of only 5.18% year-on-year, and the growth rate has dropped by 15.96 percentage points from the same period of last year. The profit rate of the main business income of the industry fell back to 6.81%, which was significantly lower than the 7% level in 2010 and 2011. In the year, the total value of taxes paid by the machinery industry was 655.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12.86%; the company's loss was 11.25%, an increase of 2.78 percentage points over the same period of the previous year.

The foreign trade situation is grim, and the growth rate has fallen sharply. The total volume of imports and exports realized in the whole year was 647.2 billion U.S. dollars, only a year-on-year increase of 2.54%, and the growth rate dropped by 20.3 percentage points from the previous year. Among them, a total of US$305 billion was exported and US$299.6 billion was imported.

The growth rate of investment in fixed assets dropped. In 2012, the fixed assets investment totaled 3.48 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 24.86%, a sharp drop of 12.63 percentage points from the same period of last year. On a monthly basis, the growth rate of fixed asset investment continued to fall in 2012, indicating that the expansion of production capacity began to cool down.

Insufficient demand and difficulty in operation In general, the development environment of the machinery industry in 2012 can be said to be a mixture of internal and external conflicts. The challenge is rather severe. From an internal point of view, the factors for the reduction of revenue and expenditure during the operation of the industry have continued to increase, and the profit rate has decreased from high to low. The first is the sharp slowdown in demand growth. From January to November 2012, the cumulative amount of orders for key enterprises in the machinery industry decreased by 1.26% year-on-year. The second is the decline in prices. Third, with excess capacity, except for a few high-end equipment that have yet to pass the technology and have not yet been able to achieve localization, almost all mechanical products are facing severe oversupply and vicious competition. Fourth, as costs increased, not only labor costs increased significantly, but financial costs continued to grow at a rapid rate. From January to December 2012, the accumulative growth in the financial expenses of the machinery industry was as high as 27.96%, of which the increase in interest expenses was 30.59%, which greatly increased the burden on machinery companies. Fifthly, the amount of defaulted payment was serious. From January to December 2012, the total amount of accounts receivable from the machinery industry was as high as 2.6 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 14.94%, much higher than the 9.8% increase in main business revenue during the same period. Accounts receivable accounted for a rising proportion of main business income, especially for key enterprises in sub-sectors such as power generation equipment (50% to 80%), heavy mining machinery (100%), and construction machinery (35%). serious.

From the outside, the changes in the international environment are deeply challenged. First, weak external demand. Second, the Western developed countries represented by the developed countries to adjust their economic development strategies, from the past "de-industrialization" to "re-industrialization", in particular, vigorously expand the monopoly position in the field of high-end equipment. This has brought tremendous pressure and severe challenges to the development of China's high-end equipment manufacturing industry.

In the first 11 months of 2012, foreign investment (excluding Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan) accumulated a total of RMB 224.4 billion in fixed assets investment in China's machinery industry, an increase of 29.69% over the same period of the previous year. Under the background of a marked decline in the growth rate of investment in fixed assets across the industry, the contrarian situation of foreign investment has risen sharply, with an increase rate higher than the average increase of the industry (25.59%) by 4.1 percentage points.

Significant contraction in the number of downside pressures are not reduced by the slowdown in fixed asset investment growth and continued decline in exports, in 2012 the overall operation of China's equipment industry is still not out of downward pressure. According to statistics from the National Bureau of Statistics, from January to November last year, the value-added of equipment manufacturing industry increased by 8.2% year-on-year, which was significantly lower than that of all industries above designated size, and the growth rate dropped by 7.2% compared with the same period of last year. Among them, the first, second and third quarters increased by 9.1%, 9.1%, and 7.6% year-on-year, respectively, and increased by 6.5% and 7.4% respectively in October and November.

Judging from the operating characteristics, industry orders declined significantly. Affected by the slowdown in market demand, the number of new orders for the equipment manufacturing industry has shrunk significantly. From the perspective of the China Machinery Federation's focus on linking corporate orders, the cumulative number of new orders signed during the year before last year only increased by 6% year-on-year. Last year, the accumulated growth has shown negative growth, among which the orders for construction machinery, ships, machine tools, trucks, and power generation equipment declined most significantly. . Export growth fell sharply. From January to November 2012, the export delivery value of equipment manufacturing industry only increased by 1.3% year-on-year, a substantial decrease of 20.2 percentage points from the same period of last year, of which, the first and second quarters increased by 6.7% and 3%, respectively, and decreased by 1.9% in the third quarter. 7 Since the beginning of the month, it has experienced negative growth year-on-year for five consecutive months, and it has fallen by 1.8% in November. Profitability fell. From January to October last year, the equipment industry realized a profit of 905.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.1% (an increase of 20.8% in 2011), of which the automobile industry increased by 8% year-on-year. Excluding the profits of the auto industry, the profits of other industries dropped by a total of 1.4%. The profit margin was 6.31%, down 0.4% year-on-year; the company's loss was 14.7%, and the loss of loss-making enterprises was 77.5 billion yuan, up 71.7% year-on-year.

From the perspective of sub-sectors, auto production and sales have overcome the impact of unfavorable factors such as the withdrawal of market stimulus policies, reversed the negative growth situation in early 2012, and showed a trend of stabilization and recovery. According to the statistics of the Automobile Association, from January to November last year, the cumulative production and sales volume of automobiles in China were 17.48 million and 17.49 million, respectively, an increase of 4.5% and 4% year-on-year respectively, of which passenger car production and sales increased by 7.3% and 7.1% respectively. Commercial vehicle production and sales decreased by 5.7% and 6.8% respectively. The growth rate of self-owned brand passenger vehicles is basically stable, and its share in the domestic market share has decreased. From January to November last year, the sales of self-owned brand passenger cars reached 5.8 million units, a year-on-year increase of 4.9%, accounting for 41.3% of the passenger car market sales, and representing a year-on-year decrease of 0.8 percentage points; of which, the sales of self-owned brand cars reached 2.7 million units, a year-on-year increase. 1.5%, which accounted for 27.8% of the sales volume of the sedan market, accounted for a decrease of 1.3 percentage points from the same period last year. The market share of low-emission cars has declined slightly. From January to November last year, sales of cars of 1.6 litres and below were 6.9 million, an increase of 6.1% year-on-year, accounting for 70.8% of sales of cars, down 0.1% year-on-year. Exports maintained rapid growth, and bicycles exported less than 1/3 of imported cars. According to statistics from the Automobile Association, from January to November last year, 965,000 vehicles were exported, a year-on-year increase of 27.2%, and it is expected to exceed 1 million vehicles throughout the year.

From the point of view of the development of the ship industry, the global shipping market continues to be sluggish and the shipbuilding industry has entered a period of deep adjustment. Under the global environment and the slowdown in trade growth, the shipping market continued to be sluggish. The three major indicators for shipbuilding continued to decline. The economic benefits showed a downward trend, and the operating conditions were deteriorating. Production fell sharply, and the operating conditions of the industry deteriorated. According to the statistics of the Shipbuilding Association, from January to November 2012, the country completed 50.55 million dwt of shipbuilding, a year-on-year decrease of 18.2%. From January to October, the gross profit realized by the shipbuilding enterprises monitored by China Shipbuilding Industry Association decreased by 55.6% year-on-year. The market has been shrinking and the number of handheld orders has decreased significantly. From January to November, the new ship orders volume was 17.04 million dwt, of which export orders were 13.34 million dwt, down 49.4% and 46.9% year-on-year respectively; as of the end of November last year, the number of ship orders held was 113.3 million dwt, of which export orders were 9385 Millions of deadweight tons decreased by 30.3% and 31.3% year-on-year respectively. Considering that orders are highly concentrated in the hands of a few large shipyards, most small and medium-sized shipyards are facing a shortage of operating rates. At the same time, global orders fell to new lows. By the end of November, global orders for hand-held ships fell to 4,721 ships and 270 million dwt, a drop of 25% from the end of last year. Affected by the continuing downturn in the shipping market, it is increasingly difficult to deliver ships. Statistics show that as of the end of 2011, China's hand-held ship orders were 154.45 million dwt, of which 89.62 million dwt should be delivered to ships in 2012. By the end of November last year, only 50.55 million dwt were delivered, and the annual delivery volume is expected to be less than 60 million dwt. About 30 million dwt ships will be withdrawn or postponed. Under the general environment of slowing global economic growth, due to the continuing downturn in the international shipping market and the development cycle of the shipbuilding industry, the production and operation of the shipbuilding industry in China in 2013 has become more severe.

"Basic" and "high-end" go hand in hand to make structural adjustments to see results. Looking at the development of the industry in 2012, although the growth rate of all indicators of the machinery industry has declined, there are some bright spots. Cai Weici said that we should not only see the current difficulties in the development of the industry. If we look at the structural adjustment, there are indeed many bright colors in the development of the industry.

A number of positive signals have emerged in the economic operation of the industry. The decline in growth rate has slowed down and the situation is stabilizing. The monthly growth rate of gross output value of the machinery industry in 2012 was quite stable. After April, it had been fluctuating at 12%, with a volatility of less than 0.2%. After entering the fourth quarter, it began to show slight upward trend. The increase in "realization of profits" has always presented a slight upward trend in the month. Only the increase in "export foreign exchange" showed a clear downward trend in the second half of the year. At the same time, the increase in the cumulative amount of orders for the key enterprises in the machinery industry has also been reflected: from January to July 2012, it was down 5.55% year-on-year, and from January to November was down 1.26% year-on-year, and the decline was already narrowing, indicating that the ordering situation was picking up.

Under the action of the market forces, the transformation and upgrading of the industry is advancing. The performance is as follows: attacking high-end, high-level infrastructure, and accelerating progress. The bottleneck that is subject to import has begun to see signs of remission; the innovation drive is increasingly valued, and the ability to enhance innovation and multi-channel “wisdom” is becoming a new fashion; New progress has been made in structural adjustment. Surplus production capacity has begun to explore new markets; in order to reduce costs and increase efficiency, production lines that rely on lowering labor costs, increasing production efficiency, and product quality have an accelerating trend; export growth is faster than imports. The rate of satisfaction in the equipment market continues to increase; the pace of development in the central and western regions is significantly faster than that in the east, and the industrial structure in the region is being adjusted in a reasonable direction; winning the development dividend through reform has been and will continue to be the main bright spot for the machinery industry to meet the challenges.

"High-end attack" is not reduced. Among them, a number of world-class equipment have come out: 80,000-ton die forging presses, 4,000-ton crawler cranes, 520-horsepower bulldozers, 75-cubic-meter mining excavators, 28-meter vertical lathes, and super-heavy-duty CNC drills with a diameter of 320mm. Ground milling and boring machines, 5-meter weight-bearing CNC ultra-heavy sleepers with a weight of 500 tons have been successfully developed. More and more domestic high-end equipment has gone abroad: a major type of forge welded structure hot wall hydrogenation reactor exported to India (1.4 billion), too heavy 4 to 35 cubic meters mining excavator exports India and Russia and other countries, Zhenhua Heavy industry marine pipelaying equipment exports to the United States; CITIC Heavy Machinery large ball mill exported to Australia, Brazil, Russia and more than 20 countries; long-term high-end control system subject to imports also made a gratifying breakthrough, Zheda Zhongguan undertake two large petrochemical in the Middle East The project's control system amounts to 400 million yuan and 300 million yuan respectively.

The "Basis" has been given more attention. First, the investment in basic tests that has not been taken seriously in the past has increased significantly. For example, in order to break the monopoly of foreign countries, it has independently developed the world's largest AP1000 conventional island steam turbine forging and low-pressure rotor forgings (600 tons of steel ingots, 323 tons of forgings, 2.7 tons of cross-sectional diameter, 2.79×11.43 meters in diameter), and has invested no effort in investing tens of millions of dollars. In the world for the first time, the forgings were fully anatomized and evaluated, providing extremely valuable basic data for the autonomous production and further research of super-large rotor forgings. Second, the pace of autonomy in key components and special materials has accelerated. Long-term monopoly of multinational companies, severely subject to imports of high-voltage insulation bushings, transformer outlets, high-end valves, high-end control systems, high-quality cold-rolled silicon steel sheet, nuclear power evaporator 690U-type key components, measurement and control systems and special The independent innovation of raw materials has not been affected by the economic contraction. Instead, it is accelerating the pace of progress.

Technological transformation oriented toward cost reduction, energy conservation and emission reduction has received increasing attention. For example, in order to cope with the challenges of rising labor costs and recruitment difficulties, the bearing industry is increasingly developing from stand-alone machining to automated connection production. Driven by market competition pressures, to reduce material consumption, high-speed upsetting and grinding of bearing blanks are used. Concentrated circulation of cutting fluid, centralized operation of hydraulic system, etc.

Mechanical enterprises actively explored surplus capacity and turned to develop new areas. For example, the motorcycle enterprises in the Chongqing area are actively developing and converting micro-agricultural work machines in response to the difficulties of their overcapacity and the difficulty of displaying large-scale agricultural machinery in the hilly regions. This not only satisfies the needs of local agricultural development, but also mitigates the vicious competition in the industry. bitter.

The overseas merger and acquisition boom dominated by technology and market access. In January 2012, SANY re-purchased Putzmeister in Germany; in July, XCMG acquired 52% of Germany’s Schweining company; in August, Shandong Heavy invested EUR 700 million in acquiring 25% of KION in Germany and Linde Hydraulics has a 70% stake; in early October, Suzhou Xineng successfully acquired a 51% stake in Germany's Degen.

The domestic demand situation is mildly improving and the overall growth rate in 2013 is about 12%

China Machine Association expects that the machinery industry will still achieve double-digit growth in 2013. Although the machinery industry has entered a period of moderate growth, it also provides space for industry transformation and upgrading. Cai Weici believes that "moderate speed" and more quality growth are more valuable than high-speed, but extensive, growth. It is even more worth cherishing. The industry should gradually become accustomed to and strive to achieve "moderate speed" growth that is more focused on the quality of growth.

Specifically, in terms of the macro situation, it is expected that the macro economy will continue to pick up in 2013, but the recovery will be more moderate and GDP will increase by about 8 percent, slightly higher than the previous year. Inflationary pressures began to ease, creating conditions for more flexible policies. It is expected that the upward pressure on prices will rise in 2013. Some experts believe that the CPI in 2013 may recover from around 2.7% in 2012 to around 3.5%, but there is little risk of a substantial increase.

From the demand environment, domestic demand will pick up slightly, but we cannot expect rapid recovery. It is expected that the growth of consumption in 2013 is expected to remain stable; investment growth has already begun to pick up, but it is not expected to reproduce the “4 trillion” market that year. Although the growth rate of GDP in 2013 will be slightly higher than that of the previous year, it is still low. Therefore, the increase in domestic demand in 2013 should not be overly optimistic. According to a sample survey of key contact companies conducted by China Machine Building, the cumulative order amount from January to November 2012 decreased by 1.26% year-on-year, still at a very low level, highlighting that the current demand for machinery products is still in a rather sluggish state.

The total demand for external demand will increase, but the increase will further slow down. First, exports have shown a significant weakening trend in 2012. Second, although China’s machinery industry has a certain degree of international comparative advantage, exports have continued to develop rapidly for many years and have caused increasing trade friction. The difficulty of expanding exports is increasing rapidly. Therefore, the expectation for export growth should be reduced. In addition, the recent revaluation of the renminbi against the US dollar will inevitably weaken China’s export competitiveness. Third, developed country counterparts are not only trying their best to expand the advantages of high-end equipment market and limiting China's development; but also actively expanding towards the mid-range products and crowding out the traditional market in China will certainly have a negative impact on the domestic market for domestic-funded enterprises. It is expected that the demand situation of the machinery industry in 2013 will be slightly better than the previous year, but it is still rather severe and it must not be overly optimistic.

From the perspective of the supply environment, the cost of procurement has risen slowly. In September 2012, the PPI increased by -3.6% year-on-year, a 35-month low, a year-on-year increase of -2.8% in November and a -2.2% year-on-year increase in November, indicating that although the real economy is obviously cold, the decline has continued to narrow. It shows that the economy has started to pick up. Against this backdrop, purchase prices for fuel, power, and transportation have been at a relatively low level for the previous year, and it is expected that the cost of procurement will slowly rise in 2013. It is worth noting that despite the current low prices of international bulk materials, the prices of upstream resource products are likely to rebound under the stimulus of loose monetary policies in the United States, Japan, and other countries, which will increase China’s import inflation. risk.

In summary, Cai Weici predicted that the demand for machinery industry in 2013 will be better than that of the previous year, but it cannot be said that it will improve significantly; the pressure of rising costs will continue to increase; on the other hand, macroeconomic policies are expected to continue to be more relaxed, and industrial policies are expected to continue to exist. Facilitate the upgrading of the machinery industry.

It is expected that the economic speed of the machinery industry in 2013 will be slightly higher than that of 2012, but overall it is still at a relatively low level and it is expected to continue to achieve double-digit growth throughout the year. Among them: the growth rate of production and sales is expected to be around 12%; the profit growth is expected to be around 8%; the export growth is expected to be around 8%.