Recently, natural rubber market oversupply, natural rubber prices into the trough. With the drop in the price of rubber, the profitability of domestic rubber companies has dropped significantly. Low operating rates and low order volumes make rubber companies feel business difficult. On June 3, 2014, the US Steel Workers Union (USW) represented the US passenger car and light truck tire industry with applications from the US Department of Commerce and the US International Trade Commission requesting passenger and light truck tire products from China. Starting anti-dumping investigations and anti-subsidy investigations, China's tire exports are in crisis. Tire export encounters trade barriers According to U.S. Customs statistics, China’s tires involved in this case amounted to US$2.078 billion in 2013 for US exports, and US$510 million in exports in the first quarter of this year. The plaintiff listed on the indictment a large number of Chinese export and production companies, including many companies such as Tianjin Bridgestone Tire Co., Ltd. According to media reports, USW International Chairman Gerald said: “The unfairly-priced tires imported from China once again have an impact on the U.S. market. US domestic tire manufacturers are rapidly losing market share in the past two years because they are from China. The number of imported tires has skyrocketed, and domestic shipments in the United States have been greatly reduced. In addition, domestic tire manufacturers and their employees have not obtained sufficient benefits from the economic recovery in the United States." "The dumping involved in the case is as high as 92%. Simply put, China is depriving the United States of employment opportunities," Gerrard said. Yu Shengxing, a partner of Haihua Yongtai Law Firm, believes that this is the United States following the expiry of the special protection measures for Chinese cars and light truck tires in 2009. It has also changed the pattern and used double counters to set trade barriers against Chinese tires. The Chinese tires Enterprises should actively respond to this and safeguard their own interests. This reporter learned that in April 2009, USW filed an application with the US International Trade Commission to initiate special security investigations on tires of passenger cars produced in China, which caused heavy losses in China’s tire exports. On September 11, 2009, US President Barack Obama signed an order to impose a three-year heavy tax on China's tires, which took effect on September 26. The United States imposed an additional tariff of 35%, 30%, and 25% on imported Chinese cars and light truck tires on the basis of the original tariff of 4%, and then imposed a 35%, 30%, and 25% additional tariff respectively for the next three years. This resulted in great Chinese exports to the US tire industry. The blow. This time, USW lifted its double-sticks to China's tire companies, causing the crisis in China's tire exports to face another crisis. Businesses actively respond to trade frictions In the face of frequent trade friction cases, how should Chinese companies deal with them? The president of the China Rubber Industry Association, Deng Yachen, believes that the Chinese tire industry must undergo a full range of structural adjustment, transformation and upgrading. In addition, the entire tire industry to strengthen self-discipline, orderly competition and open up a broader market is also an effective method. Kunshan Inspection and Quarantine Bureau recommends that tire production and export companies: First of all, they must stabilize traditional markets such as the United States, Europe, and Japan, expand emerging markets such as Africa, South America, and ASEAN, implement a “diversification†strategy, and reduce the risk of excessive concentration of tire export markets; To adjust the product structure, adjust the middle and low-end products to medium-to-high-end products, increase the proportion of energy-saving, environmental protection, smart products, and brand-name products, and use high-value-added tires as the main attack direction to cultivate Chinese famous brands and world famous brands; once again, we must further improve the quality. Control system, improve self-inspection and self-control ability, reduce production cost and enhance international competitiveness on the basis of ensuring tire quality and safety; Fourth, strengthen self-discipline, standardize market order, and avoid vicious competition phenomena such as cutting corners and materials, and low-cost competitive marketing. The reporter learned that in recent years, industry associations and governments have introduced a number of standards regulating the tire industry, such as "access conditions for the tire refurbishment industry", "interim measures for the management of access to waste tires comprehensive utilization industry," and so on. In addition, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has recently publicly solicited opinions on the “conditions for the entry of the tire industryâ€. It is hoped that under the guidance of the national policy, the tire industry can complete the transformation and upgrade better and faster. Zhang Hongmin, chairman of the Shandong Rubber Industry Association, said in an interview with the media that tire companies are also building a factory overseas to deal with trade frictions. Domestic large tire companies such as Linglong and Saiwan are setting up factories in Thailand, Vietnam and other raw material production areas. It can not only reduce the cost of raw material procurement, but also reduce the impact of potential international trade friction. Natural rubber prices into the trough Recently, natural rubber production continues to increase, and the natural rubber market has sufficient stocks, but its downstream consumer demand is not robust. Industry sources said that due to the oversupply situation, natural rubber prices will come to a low point. Natural rubber stock is high The reporter learned that the production of several important members of the Natural Rubber Producing Countries Association (ANRPC) in the second half of the year will be higher than the first half of the year. From the domestic point of view, this seasonal cycle is even more pronounced. Although rubber trees in Hainan, Yunnan, etc., have been successively cut off in March and April each year, the large-scale listing of the new rubber will not take place until May and June. It will be the high-yield period in September. In the third quarter of this year, new rubber production will be released on a large scale. According to the International Rubber Research Organization (IRSG), the global natural rubber supply surplus in 2014 will be more than three times higher than previously estimated, reaching the highest level in 10 years. In December last year, the organization expects the surplus to be at most 241,000 tons, and the current estimate exceeds 714,000 tons, and there is still the possibility that the future production figures will increase. According to media reports, the huge supply increase in the rubber-producing countries in Southeast Asia has continued to inflate the inventory of major consumers such as China and Japan. According to data released by the General Administration of Customs, from January to April, China imported 1.58 million tons of natural rubber, a year-on-year increase of 14.5%. Recently, rubber stocks in Qingdao Free Trade Zone have increased again, with a total inventory of 362,200 tons. Under the premise of saturation of storage capacity, the probability of compound glue coming out of the warehouse increases, giving the opportunity for natural rubber storage, and thus driving natural rubber inventory to continue to increase. According to the latest ANRPC report, the enthusiasm of plastic tappers has been hit by the dry weather and low rubber prices in the major producing countries of Southeast Asia. However, from the previous four months of data, natural rubber production increased by 1.2% year-on-year, of which Thailand fell by 1.4%, Indonesia by 3.8, Vietnam by 4%, and China by 19.5%. From April to May, the major rubber producing countries have gradually entered the tapping period. Under the current background of high inventory, the oversupply situation of natural rubber will continue. According to industry insiders, due to the complex market conditions, most manufacturers have already stockpiled previously, and there will not be a large number of purchases in the near future. However, the previous sales situation of rubber production enterprises was not satisfactory, including the unprecedented stock of natural rubber in the bonded area. Affected by the sales situation, natural rubber prices are likely to decline further. Downstream consumer demand weakened Although there is sufficient inventory of natural rubber and the supply is large, the downstream consumer demand is not strong. According to the statistics from the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, in April 2014, the production and sales of commercial vehicles completed 40.01 million vehicles and 395,200 vehicles, respectively, a decrease of 11.8% and 13.9% respectively. The heavy truck market appears to be gradually declining. In April, the heavy-duty truck market sold a total of 86,000 vehicles. Although it rose 5% year-on-year, it was down 11% from the previous month and a net decrease of 11,000 vehicles. Judging from the historical sales laws of the heavy truck market, after March, heavy truck sales will gradually enter the off-season sales season. In addition to year-end promotions, it is worth looking forward to. If there are no relevant policies introduced during the rest of the year, heavy truck sales will hardly have a big improvement. The reporter learned that the increase in the supply of tires, the slowdown in demand, and the lowering of the product's price center of gravity have caused the average price of the products sold in the mainstream brands of the tire market to decline year after year. According to data from the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, China's auto production and sales in the first quarter completed 5.917 million and 5.9223 million vehicles, respectively, an increase of 9.2% over the same period of last year, and the growth rate was 3.6 and 4 percentage points lower than the same period of last year. The inventory indices of automobile dealers for January to March are 0.97, 2.33, and 1.38, respectively. This shows that while the scale of auto production and sales in China is steadily increasing, the pressure on auto inventory will also increase simultaneously, and the procurement of upstream natural rubber raw materials will also slowly decrease. . Rubber industry should make progress towards internationalization With high inventory levels and falling prices, the development of the rubber industry in China is under pressure. Industry sources said that in the current market downturn, the state should actively support the domestic natural rubber production enterprises, improve the technical level of China's natural rubber production enterprises, transform the processing technology, and actively encourage China's natural rubber production enterprises to go abroad and go to the world. The rubber industry is one of the important basic industries of the national economy. It not only provides people with daily-use, medical and other light industrial rubber products that are indispensable to daily life, but also provides rubber production equipment or rubber parts to mining, transportation, construction, machinery, electronics and other heavy industries and emerging industries. China's rubber industry has achieved a lot of development. The existing sub-sectors have been rising steadily, and the new-rubber sub-sector industry is developing rapidly. This reporter learned that from January to November 2013, China's rubber industry completed the current industrial output value of 307.185 billion yuan, an increase of 3.90%; realized sales revenue of 295.981 billion yuan, an increase of 2.15%; achieved export delivery value of 90.503 billion yuan, an increase from the same period last year 0.46%. 368 key enterprises (excluding auxiliaries, skeletons) realized profits of 22.392 billion yuan, an increase of 19.45%; realized profits of 14.198 billion yuan, an increase of 19.44%. Among them, 48 had losses and the loss rate was 13.04%; the loss amounted to 850 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 19.71%. Although China's rubber industry has achieved rapid development, it still has some pressure. Due to the good sales situation in the automotive market in China last year, many manufacturers have increased their sales targets this year, resulting in an increase in rubber inventories and a drop in rubber prices, which has increased market pressure. In this regard, the relevant person in charge of the China National Natural Rubber Association said that in the current market downturn, it is necessary to further strengthen the market-oriented, joint downstream companies and science and technology departments to develop marketable rubber products. In addition, due to the slow recovery of the world economy and uncertainties, China's rubber production and processing companies have been hit, and rubber planters and plastic farmers have suffered heavy losses. Zhu Xiuyan, honorary president of China National Natural Rubber Association, believes that despite the current low price of rubber, in the long run, natural rubber still has a tendency of prosperous production and consumption. The enthusiasm of planting rubber in the world has not been reduced, and there is still potential for the development of planting processing. Recently, Zhu Xiuyan said in an interview with the media that at present, the area of ​​rubber gardens in China reached 16.9 million mu, and in 2012, it produced 800,000 tons of rubber. It is expected that by the year 2015, China will produce more than 900,000 tons of plastic. In 2020, the domestic production of rubber will reach 1.2 million tons, and the output of the bonded rubber will reach 1.9 million tons. At that time, the control of natural rubber in China could reach 3.9 million tons, and the external dependence would be reduced from the current 80% to 40%, basically achieving the domestic security of natural rubber. When it comes to the future development of the rubber industry, some people in the industry stated that there are still many favorable factors in the rubber market in China. The development of the transportation industry and the development of the coal, electricity, and building materials machinery industries will all contribute to the development of related rubber products. At the same time, the continuous optimization of the tire variety structure, high-performance tires to speed up the development speed, will avoid some of the risk factors in the tire industry in the future development process, China's synthetic rubber production capacity and output growth, is also a guarantee for the downstream industry development . From the perspective of market trends, China's rubber demand will continue to grow steadily, and the market prospects in the future will be broad. China's natural rubber production and controllable resources will further increase. In addition, the state should actively support the domestic natural rubber production enterprises, improve the technical level, and transform the processing technology; at the same time, we must actively encourage natural rubber production enterprises to go abroad, establish natural rubber production bases abroad, and gradually reduce China's dependence on natural rubber imports. degree. Rubber companies face profitability problems With the drop in the price of rubber, the profitability of domestic rubber companies has dropped significantly. Low operating rates and low order volumes make rubber companies feel business difficult. In order to reduce operating losses, some rubber companies use futures to avoid risks. Rubber companies survive difficult "Since this year, the operating rate of some large rubber companies has dropped drastically; the survival of small and medium-sized rubber companies is even more difficult, with almost no order, and the loss of work stoppages is common," said an unnamed rubber dealer. The reporter learned that the stock market in the rubber market is high, and the situation of oversupply makes it increasingly difficult for rubber companies to make profits. According to public information, in the first quarter of this year, rubber stocks in Qingdao Free Trade Zone hit a record high. Data show that as of the end of February, natural rubber stocks reached 2.166 million tons, an increase of 57,200 tons from December 31 last year. At the same time, from June last year to January this year, natural rubber imports continued to increase, reaching 350,000 tons in December last year, setting a record high. "At present, the market's demand has been slowing down, real estate has been affected by market factors and restrictions on purchasing and other policies, and it has not been able to recover the demand for natural rubber for a short time. The auto industry has also suffered from weak demand due to factors such as environmental protection. In addition, various regions have issued restrictions on vehicles, Limited number and other policies, the continuity of this policy is strong, so that the sales of domestic cars are affected, the demand for natural rubber is difficult to increase.†A natural rubber dealer lamented. In order to reduce operating losses, some rubber companies use futures to avoid risks. Zheng Wenrong, secretary-general of the China National Natural Rubber Association, said in an interview with the media that in recent years, the branded rubbers of Hainan and Yunnan agricultural estates have averaged 1,000 yuan more per ton of rubber than the spot market. Agriculture has already begun to use plastics sold by TV and radio to sell natural rubber at futures prices. The situation of asymmetric information on production and trade has improved markedly. “Despite the impact of the changeable mechanism of acceptors in the rubberized area and the shortage of funds, the annual natural rubber used for hedging in the futures market only accounts for about 15% of domestic rubber production, but it is locked in profits, capital risk management, price discovery, It has played an important guiding role in guiding businesses and increasing the income of plastic farmers,†said Zheng Wenrong. In addition, the reporter learned that currently, one-third of Hainan's rubber products are hedged, locking in some profits and avoiding market volatility; 1/3 direct sales to major customers, and ensuring that the rubber market maintains stable income when major changes occur. ;1/3 through the spot market bidding sales, reflecting the market value. Plastic farmers to other agricultural products With the drop in the price of rubber, Jiaonong feels that the profits from growing rubber are getting lower and lower. In order to reduce economic losses, Jiaonong began to give up rubber and switch to other agricultural products. “In recent days, the profit of planting rubber may be worse than before. Many rubber farmers have started to cultivate other crops because they have no profit in growing rubber. They hope to reduce profit losses,†said a rubber plantation farmer in Hainan. “At present, the phenomenon of “abandonment of rubber†by rubber farmers is increasing. Because rubber companies will choose cheaper rubber in natural rubber and rubber, the profits of natural rubber growers are greatly reduced, and farmers growing natural rubber are increasingly Less,†said one industry insider. 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