December 22, 2024

China's auto companies have many problems to solve before the full ban on fuel vehicles


As the world's largest auto market, China will ban the sale of fuel vehicles.

Recently, at the 2017 China Automotive Industry Development (TEDA) Forum held in Tianjin, Xin Guobin, Vice Minister of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, stated that the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has started relevant research and will work out with related departments the timetable for China to stop production and sales of conventional energy vehicles.

Despite the rapid development of new energy vehicles, China is currently the world's largest electric vehicle sales market, but it still gives people a sense of distance.

However, at present, the ban on the sale of fuel vehicles and the promotion of electric vehicles have become the consensus of major countries in the world and even major automobile manufacturers.

Globally banned fuel vehicles

In August 2015, Mary Nichols, chairman of the California Air Resources Board, said that California may ban the sale of conventional fuel vehicles in 2030. At the time, California's electric vehicle sales accounted for half of the entire US market. At the same time, she also said that it will promote and gradually increase the regulatory restrictions on vehicle emissions, forcing car companies to gradually develop electric vehicles or hydrogen-powered vehicles.

Only eight months later, European governments also followed up on the proposal to ban the sale of fuel vehicles.

In April 2016, the Labour Party of the Netherlands made a public proposal to plan to ban the continued sale of gasoline and diesel vehicles in China in 2025. Although this proposal was met with strong opposition from the right-wing party, the Liberal Democrats’ Party, it was eventually passed. The Dutch cabinet needs to introduce relevant plans to promote the implementation of this proposal.

In May 2016, the four major Norwegian parties agreed to ban the sale of fuel vehicles from 2025 onwards. Moreover, statistics at that time showed that electric vehicle sales in Norway accounted for 24% of new cars sold.

In October 2016, the German Federal Senate passed a resolution stating that it would stop using gasoline and diesel-fueled vehicles in its territory from 2030 onwards, and urged other EU member states to accept the proposal. Although this resolution was eventually rejected by the German government, it was still a very symbolic event in that year. It represented the first time that the dispute between internal combustion engine and pure electric power entered the legislative level.

This year, at the official level, India and France have already stated that they will ban the sale of fuel vehicles (including gasoline and diesel vehicles) in 2030. The British government announced that it would completely ban the sale of fuel vehicles from 2040 onwards. At that time, the market would only allow sales of new energy-friendly vehicles such as electric vehicles.

Faced with this trend, the world's major automakers including Volkswagen Group, Daimler Group, BMW Group, and Volvo Cars have announced plans to develop electric vehicles. The ban on the sale of fuel vehicles and the promotion of electric vehicles in the automotive industry are both current and future trends.

The gap between ideals and reality

Although the official level has expressed its position on replacing traditional fuel vehicles with electric vehicles, the actual operation is very difficult.

Many analysts and industry insiders believe that China's time to ban the sale of fuel vehicles will not be earlier than the time in major countries in Europe and the United States, after all, China has a very large auto industry and a huge amount of car sales.

According to data from the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, in 2016 China's auto production and sales completed 28.119 million vehicles and 28.058 million vehicles, respectively, an increase of 14.5% and 13.7% over the same period of the previous year; among them, 517,000 new energy vehicles were produced, and 507,000 were sold. , an increase of 51.7% and 53% respectively over the same period of the previous year.

Although the development of new energy vehicles is rapid, it is still difficult to compare the volume with traditional fuel vehicles, especially in terms of production and sales. More importantly, how to allow consumers to accept new energy and recognize that new energy vehicles (especially electric vehicles) are the key to promoting new energy vehicles.

Yi Bing, senior analyst at Think Tank, told the “International Finance” reporter that to enable ordinary consumers to fully accept pure electric vehicles, they need to get rid of two major obstacles—one is the change in usage habits and the other is mileage anxiety.

In terms of usage habits, if the driver finds that the fuel vehicle is running out of fuel, it is only necessary to go to the gas station to refuel. The entire refueling process takes two to three minutes. It is simple and quick; when using an electric vehicle, it often needs to be powered. Vehicle charging, and if the entire society is not perfect in the construction of charging facilities, then basically only in the home, or a few parking lots with charging facilities can be charged, charging takes time and trouble.

In terms of mileage anxiety, even the longest-running electric vehicle can only run about 600 kilometers. This determines that the driver can only travel in the city or between the short-distance cities. Otherwise, if the car is out of power, there is no charge nearby. The facilities will be stopped on the way. Under the current technical conditions, if you want to increase the mileage, the most realistic way is to increase the number of batteries, but this also has to face the problem of the maximum load and cost of electric vehicles.

The market demand is the guide and driving force for the development of automakers. Otherwise, with China's huge auto production line, it is difficult to automate the transformation and transition of electric vehicles.

In the Chinese market, although the sales of electric vehicles are good, the data from the CLUCC shows that the vast majority of models are low-end, low-speed electric vehicles that can only meet the needs of a small number of consumers.

Hou Yanjun, head of UBS Asia’s auto industry, told the “International Financial News” reporter that China’s faster sales in pure electric vehicles than other countries, partly because of the Chinese government's strong support at the policy level, especially the introduction of car subsidy policies On the other hand, because China has the most complete automotive industry chain in the world, it involves large and small parts for electric vehicles, and you can purchase them in the Chinese market.

However, on a technical level, Hou Yanxi stated that China's electric vehicles do not have an advantage, especially in terms of batteries, electronic control and vehicle design. For example, currently the most widely used three-cell lithium battery power battery, Japan's Matsushita, South Korea's LG and other manufacturers to be stronger than the domestic; in the electronic control technology, Tesla's electronic control technology has a very strong originality, the country has not yet Can exceed.

Is pure electric car the future?

In the area of ​​new energy vehicles, the current direction of the government and companies is purely electric vehicles, but is pure electric vehicles the future of automotive development?

Hou Yanji told the International Finance News reporter: “The next generation is the fuel cell. There is no doubt that there are countless scientists who have been doing it for 30 to 40 years, and the cost has also dropped dramatically.”

At the earliest time, BMW had exhibited a fuel cell car at a Los Angeles auto show. At that time, BMW was only exhibited in a small area and it was not disclosed. Some participants disclosed that the cost of that car was 1 million at that time. Dollar, but the style is not dazzling sports car, power is much worse.

Toyota Motor then took over the "sweeping stick." In 2015, Toyota introduced Mirai, a hydrogen fuel cell vehicle, for only $57,500, which is close to the price of the Tesla Starter Edition. In the US Environmental Protection Agency's test, the cruising range of the car reached 502 kilometers. What's more, this model only has water discharged after the work is done, which is more environmentally friendly than the fuel car. It is more convenient than the fuel car in terms of refueling. It takes only 3 minutes and does not require long charging time. Moreover, for China where thermal power generation accounts for 60% of the total power source, electric vehicles may not be able to exert much environmental protection.

Moreover, a large number of scientific researchers are making this fuel cell, which is why Japanese automobile companies are not particularly keen on electric vehicles. They think that fuel cells are the ultimate solution.

At present, the only bottleneck restricting the development of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles is hydrogen production technology and storage technology, but Toyota has begun to sell such models. The industry expects that as the economies of scale appear, the costs will be evenly distributed, and the spring of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles will come.

In the face of more environmentally friendly hydrogen fuel cell cars, pure electric vehicles still have much time.



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