South Korean car crash just after the bigger auto market "grey rhinoceros" has been on the road

What is more dangerous than the "black swan"? It is "gray rhinoceros"!

In 2017, Korean-style cars and French-style cars fell in the cliff-breaking style and the Leshi-operating car bubble burst. When we look back at the upset events in these auto circles, people often think that individual companies are not lucky enough to attribute them to the low probability of “black swan”. event.

In fact, these incidents are genuine gray rhinos. Similar to the black swan's metaphor for small but highly influential events, grey rhinoceros is used to analogize large-scale probabilistic and potentially influential potential crises. In contrast to the unpredictable and sporadic events of the Black Swan incident, the Grey Rhino incident is not a random incident but a high-probability event that occurs after a series of warning signs and signs.

Admittedly, the cooling of Sino-Korean relations in 2017 is a direct trigger for the decline in Korean car sales. However, Korean cars have been attacked by both Japanese brands and independent brands in these years. It can be said that the auto market has pave the way for this crash of Korean cars. For a long time, similarly, before the bursting of Le Shi Shreaker, and the overwhelming news conference, there are many media writers who have made LeSpot's blueprints riddled with tears, and the sound of debt collection has long since become Let’s watch the burial song of Empire collapse. This is totally different from the low-probability black swan event such as the bankruptcy of Takata Airbags, the falsification of Kobe Steel, and even the mass discharge gates.

Slightly sensible person, the gray rhino before the arrival of the heart will be a bit more forcing. But why did you end up with all the feathers? This is the concealment of the "gray rhino". In 2017, when the economist Michel Schick proposed the concept of “gray rhinoceros”, people realized how important it was to guard against obvious, high-probability crisis events. The People’s Daily even described the gray rhino's characteristics: The grey rhinoceros is heavy and unresponsive. You can see it in the distance, but you don’t care. Once it’s rushing toward you, you’ll be caught off guard and thrown directly. On the ground. It is not mysterious but more dangerous.

Will there be dangerous grey rhinos in the car circle in 2018? There is no doubt that the answer is almost certain for this high probability event. Fortunately, unlike the randomly occurring black swan event that makes people feel desperate, the grey rhino crisis is predictable.

The first thing that will happen in 2018 is the price war. The story of the auto market in the fourth quarter of 2017 has laid the ground for the emergence of grey rhinoceros in the coming year.

On the evening of November 5, a new generation of Cadillac XTS went on the market. The price of the new generation of Cadillac XTS was less than 30,000 yuan from the previous generation of XTS, and a full 100,000 yuan less than the Audi A6L. The Jaguar XEL also fought back at low prices, starting at a low price of 288,800 yuan. In 2018, Cadillac XT4, Volvo XC40, Jaguar E-PACE, Lexus UX, the new Mercedes-Benz GLA and other luxury brands compact SUV will be listed, the price is bound to further explore.

The price decline has started from the top of the price pyramid and will soon lead to the stimulation of the joint-venture car companies in the middle of the price chain and the downstream brands. On November 15th, Beijing Hyundai New Generation ix35 was officially listed in Guangzhou, which cost 30,000 yuan less than the old models. On December 20, Changan Ruixin CC was listed at a price of less than 90,000 yuan. The class-B car Geely Borri is 30,000 yuan lower, and the price of the A+-class cars Dihao GL and Roewe i6 is lower...

In the price war, car companies must also face differentiation. When the Geely Vision Series price went under 40,000 yuan, it quickly smashed the jobs of many marginal car companies.

In 2018, some car companies are likely to face the risk of going out. The major trend of consumption upgrade remains unchanged, and the price decline will not stop. When some enterprises' sales volume drops sharply and their benefits dip, the sale of idle factories and production capacity, or even the sale of production qualification “shell resources” to emerging car manufacturers, becomes their inevitable choice.

In 2017, it was reported that the factory of Dongfeng Yueda Kia was in a semi-discontinued state. The workers in the second factory were divided into two classes to work every other day, while the first and third factories were “three, four, and four.” There were workers only on a monthly basis. 5 days. At one time there was even rumors that Dongfeng Yueda KIA had plans to sell factories. Similarly, there are rumors that Chery sold the Dalian plant and the Changshu Guanzhi plant to SAIC.

Although SAIC and Chery's factory transactions have not been finalized, the fact that Baoneng Group Holdings Limited has a controlling interest in the auto industry indicates that the flow of automotive production capacity has already started in closed automotive circles. At present, Qoros Automotive is in a downturn, but there are still a lot of companies that are even more pessimistic. In the more marginalized enterprises, especially those private car companies that do not have local government as their backers, the wind is even greater.

At present, there are more than 100 automobile manufacturers in China. Some agencies predict that China's auto production capacity will reach 50 million by 2020. With about 30 million vehicles removed, China’s auto industry may have 20 million excess capacity.

In 2016, 13 companies such as Shuanghuan, Anchi, and Qingling have been disqualified from the production of passenger vehicles. In 2018, with the intensified competition of traditional car companies, some car companies will be able to sell their production capacity or even withdraw from the automotive sector or become the norm.

However, the risks and “grey rhinoceros” of the edge automakers may become the opportunities and enthusiasm of emerging auto companies. Zhong Shi, an analyst in the automotive industry, believes that the “shell resources” and production capacity of these companies are exactly what the new vehicle builders need. Yao boss of Baoneng has succeeded. Miss Dong is still looking for prey.

In 2018, the accelerated decline of the auto market has led to even greater gray rhinoceros. According to Wilson's forecast, the retail sales of the passenger car market in 2018 will be 24.42 million units, which is close to zero growth. This does not consider the impact of the US tax cuts and interest rate hikes on China's macro economy.

According to Huang Heng, director of the Wilson Center for Forecasting, one is the age of population. Most of the major car buyers are concentrated in the 26-35 year old, and the proportion of this population will continue to decline in 2018. The decrease in the car population base may bring about the automobile market. Negative sales growth.

Another important factor in 2018 is the impact of purchase tax preferences on slope reduction. Consumers who originally wanted to buy a car in January-March 2018 would buy cars in advance by 2017. Nielsen predicts that this will either overdraft the sales of 1.8 million cars in 2018.

In addition, the new cars listed in the future will also affect the overall sales growth. The number of new cars listed in 2017 is 177 models. By 2018, there will be more, about 200 models, but 90 of them are new energy vehicles. The sales brought by new energy vehicles cannot be expected to bring about much boost to the overall sales volume. After all, the entire new energy market has only a capacity of hundreds of thousands of vehicles.

When the auto market grows at a medium to high speed, well-developed car companies can also boldly pursue poetry and the distance, and poorly-developed car companies can also maintain the status quo; but when the passenger car market grows at zero, the auto market's price war and knockout It is bound to accelerate the implementation of a large number of marginalized privately owned brands, such as Shenlong Motors, Dongfeng Yueda Kia, Changan PSA, and Lifan. If there is no effective countermeasure, the 2018 gray rhinoceros will be larger than this year.

In short, the price wars conducted from the top down, overcapacity leading to increased differentiation of car companies, and even some car companies out, the zero growth of the passenger car market, etc., are likely to be the "gray rhino" incident in 2018. As Huang Zhen, dean of the China Internet Financial Innovation Institute, director of the Institute of Financial Law at the Central University of Finance and Economics, and founder of the Internet Financial Thousand Talent Club, said, "The Black Swan" challenges our imagination and predictability. "Grey Rhino" Then challenge our resilience and mobility. In this rapidly changing era, a large group of obvious gray rhinoceros is getting closer and closer to us.