The 48V system is the leading technology route in Europe. HEV is the leading technology route in Japan. The confrontation between each other has been separated from the pure technological disputes. Especially in China, which has been the world's largest automotive market for nine consecutive years, it has risen to the industry. The level of contention and national interests. The choice of these two major technical routes will have a significant, profound and irreversible impact on the Chinese automobile industry in the next decade or even longer. Imagine that under the pressure of double-point assessment, the speed of energy-saving and energy-saving simply relying on traditional power is totally unable to meet the requirement of an average annual drop of 2%. Under the current policy guidance, the following four paths can achieve rapid energy consumption reduction. (Or drop fuel consumption points): i. Significantly reduce the weight or weight of bicycles Ii. Traditionally Powered 48V System in Large Area Iii. Traditional Power Large Area HEV Remix Technology Iv. Rely on EV/PHEV to quickly reduce the fuel consumption calculation result (after 2020) and use NEV points to deduct There is no doubt that the first route is directly out of the KO. Because of the promotion of environmental factors such as consumption upgrades, SUV heating, and large-scale production, it is impossible for car companies to abandon the market. That is the basis for eating. As for fuel consumption accounting, it is only too much to eat. The problem of eating less, the former is decisive for the company. Lightweight is more meaningless, not to mention carbon fiber and magnesium materials, or aluminum alloy general car companies can not be used in large quantities, the cost is too high, the bicycle can also use a 100kg or so, more than 200kg are crying. In the remaining three paths, except for new energy, which is a must-have option, 48V and HEV, which are traditional energy-saving technologies, are bound to meet each other and compete with each other. Average curb weight (kg) Average fuel consumption (L/100km) Fuel consumption reduction/year (%) year 2013 1355 7.33 1.23% Year 2014 1371 7.22 1.5% 2015 1385 7.04 2.49% 2016 1410 6.98 (NEV deducted) 0.85% *Note: The role of NEV in 2014-2015 is still small, and the effect in 2016 is deducted. First, the model estimates In the end, 48V, HEV two roads, which is the best fuel consumption tool? The best here is not only the best effect of reducing fuel consumption, but also taking into account input costs and output benefits. We may wish to take the three companies: A, B, and C as examples to deduct the fuel efficiency of different technology paths under the same conditions and see who is the best in the end. The initial conditions are set as follows: Enterprise/production (ten thousand vehicles) Tradition new energy Small/miniature Compact Medium and above SUV A 6 15 4 twenty four 1 B 6 15 4 twenty four 1 C 6 15 4 twenty four 1 *Note: The proportion of traditional car classifications is approximated by 2017 market structure data, and the proportion of new energy vehicles is assumed to be 2%. The fuel consumption and fuel consumption limits of different models are assumed as follows: Corporate/energy consumption (L/100km) Tradition New energy points Small/miniature Compact Medium and above SUV Fuel consumption 5.4 6.3 6.6 6.8 3.5 Regulatory limits 4.7 5.1 5.3 5.5 3.5 Note: The fuel consumption of traditional vehicles is calculated according to the average value of mainstream models, and the discount for new energy vehicles is 200-350km. Another key point is the setting of the boundary value of the 48V system and the HEV. The main measure is the fuel saving level and the economic cost. For 48V systems, currently European and American component giants such as Bosch, Delphi and Schaeffler have developed a complete solution - (1) Bosch Project Bosch currently pushes the second-generation 48V system. This system adds 48V energy storage battery, 48V/12V bidirectional DCDC, 48V BSG/ISG, and electric booster (optional) to the original 12V battery. The battery management system can achieve engine shutdown, coasting and braking energy recovery, acceleration assistance and electric cruising. Its core lies in the BRS (Boost Recuperation System). According to Bosch, the fuel saving rate of the first generation 48V system (the motor is integrated with the engine through the pulley) is 8-12%, and the second generation 48V system (motor and transmission integrated) is expected to have a fuel saving rate of 12-19%. In terms of cost, the current quotation for OEMs is around 5,000 yuan. (2) Continental & Schaeffler The two companies cooperated to develop the 48V system, and it has also been upgraded to the second generation. This system is similar to Bosch's system and features a P2 architecture that integrates the BSG starter motor between the engine and the transmission. Two clutches separate the engine from the transmission and the motor drives it independently. Its characteristic is very small and compact, so it is easy to arrange. Continental and Schaeffler claimed that the second-generation system can save 25% fuel consumption in the NEDC cycle. At present, the supply price for the OEM is between 5000-6000 yuan. (3) Delphi Delphi's 48V system may take better care of the characteristics of the US car, designed more powerful generators and electronic turbines in order to expand the operating conditions of the 48V system into the interval, and there is an electronic turbine to make up for the exhaust gas turbine hysteresis. As for the fuel-saving effect, Delphi is more honestly called “reducing fuel consumption by 10%-15%â€, but because the motor is “one size bigger†than competing products, the cost is higher, and the current feedback from the OEM is higher. 10-20% of similar products. Valeo, AVL, etc. have also developed solutions, but the difference is not great. On the whole, the current cost of the 48V system is around 5,000 yuan, and the declared fuel-saving effect varies from 10% to 25%. But in fact, the 48V system still cannot achieve such a high fuel economy. According to 2018 Changan Yidong, the fuel consumption of the corresponding model is reduced by 0.5L/100km, and the fuel saving effect is about 8%. Chang'an 1.6 Manual Fashion 1.6 Automatic Leader 1.6 Manual Blue Motion (48V) 1.6 Automatic Blue Motion (48V) Service quality (kg) 1325 1345 1325 1345 Advertising fuel consumption (L/100km) 6.1 6.3 5.6 5.8 Let's take a look at the situation of HEV. At present, the best thing to do is Toyota's THS. It can achieve a fuel consumption reduction of 1.7L/100km above Ralink and Corolla. The fuel-saving rate is about 28%, of course, there is also the engine thermal efficiency. If the level is high, if it is changed to an autonomous level, this effect will be discounted, which can be calculated as 25%, and the cost will be around 12,000 yuan (thanks to Toyota's mass production, the cost has been flattened). In addition to THS, Keliyuan also has a CHS system. The loading effect on the Geely emgrand is 4.9L/100km, which can be reduced by 1L/100km compared to the fuel version. The fuel saving effect is about 17%. However, the cost of this system is high, and the current shipping price is about 3 million. Second, scenario deduction With boundary conditions set, we can see how the actual results are. (1) A business owner pushes the 48V route A company Tradition new energy Small/miniature Compact Medium and above SUV Yield 6 15 4 twenty four 2 Fuel consumption / Integral value 5.1 5.9 6.1 6.2 3.5 Fuel consumption limit 4.7 5.1 5.3 5.5 / *Note: The fuel saving effect cannot be equal, and is approximated by 6%, 7%, 8%, 9% Obviously, even if all the fuel vehicles use the 48V system, they will not be able to fully meet the fuel consumption limit target by 2020, but they can indeed achieve a significant reduction in fuel consumption. According to this calculation, A company's fuel consumption points are negative 234,600, NEV points are 70,000 points, and they need to purchase 146,600 points. Accounting input and output, the total cost of A company's installation of a 48V system was 2.45 billion yuan, and the outsourcing points were calculated at 8,000 yuan/minute as 1.32 billion yuan, and the total expenditure cost was nearly 3.8 billion yuan. (2) Business owner B drives the HEV route B company Tradition new energy Small/miniature Compact Medium and above SUV Yield 6 15 4 twenty four 2 Fuel consumption / Integral value 4.3 4.9 5.0 5.1 3.5 Fuel consumption limit 4.7 5.1 5.3 5.5 / *Note: The fuel economy effect cannot be equated with 20%, 22%, 24%, 25% approximation. Obviously, B companies can easily meet the four-phase fuel consumption regulatory limit, and can obtain 253,200 points for fuel consumption and get 70,000 points for NEV points. Accounting input and output, the total cost of Company B's retrofitting of HEV systems is 14.7 billion yuan, and since the points will meet the 12% requirement, sales profit will not be considered, and the total expenditure cost will be 14.7 billion yuan. Obviously, although the fuel consumption score of company A is not satisfactory, it will only cost 3.8 billion yuan in total. Although company B has obtained a lot of positive points for fuel consumption, it is unable to make a profit from the transaction, but also needs to pay a high cost for installation. , Counting down more than 100 billion yuan. Maybe you will ask a question. Isn't it up to standard? All to buy points to arrive? The C company example will let you completely dispel this idea. (3) C companies choose to develop negatively C companies choose to use neither 48V nor HEV, relying on a 2% annual decline in conventional fuel consumption. What will C companies do by 2020? B company Tradition new energy Small/miniature Compact Medium and above SUV Yield 6 15 4 twenty four 2 Fuel consumption / Integral value 5.2 6.1 6.3 6.5 3.5 Fuel consumption limit 4.7 5.1 5.3 5.5 / As a result of the calculation, C companies will generate 34.53 million points for negative fuel consumption, with 70,000 points for NEV points, 275,300 points for outsourcing, and a cost of 2.2 billion yuan. Doesn't it seem more cost-effective than A company's 3.8 billion? NO! You should know that if the situation of Company A and Company C are scaled up to the total scale of 30 million passenger cars, the resulting negative balance of fuel consumption will reach a huge 330-660 million points, which will lead to serious NEV points supply and demand. Unbalanced (A company scene zooms in, the integral supply and demand will be slightly unbalanced), the integral price is far more than 8,000 yuan, and the cost doubles, no matter which enterprise will not want to be the backward duck. Although the situation of the three ABC companies is too absolute, no one company will actually adopt an absolute technical route. Instead, it will adopt a combination of technologies for different models. However, this is only for verification. In the current points system, points Under the price expectation, the comprehensive performance of HEV is not as good as the 48V system for most companies. This is not to say that HEV is not good. In fact, Zhidian Automotive has always considered HEV to be an extremely important technical line. It is simply unable to function normally in the context of policy. Third, in-depth analysis If we say that HEV is not as cost-effective as 48V in terms of input costs and output benefits, then the other issues are even worse. 1,48V system has a faster upload speed Suppliers, including Bosch, China, etc., have now proposed systematic solutions. This systematization is not only systematization of hardware, but also systematization of software, and can support OEMs not to make much changes in existing models. In the case of a quick finish, this is much faster than the HEV system's large and complex matching. In the absence of several years from 2020, taking into account the objective conditions of at least two rounds of three high calibration (two years +), car manufacturers now choose HEV certainly not as timely and more quickly than the 48V system. 2. The supply of HEV system is too narrow Toyota's system is very good, large-scale, low-cost, mature and reliable, but it is not open to the outside world. In other words, the probability that you want to use this program is 0. Even if Toyota is open to the outside world, given that the THS system is highly targeted, external car companies must spend a great deal of time and effort on debugging and matching in order to make changes on their own models. This is almost three years. Things that cannot be accomplished within. In addition, Japanese and Korean companies such as Honda i-MMD also have mixed systems, but they are still not open to their own brands. For example, Hyundai will not open up core technology information about Beijing and Kowloon to Bixon, nor will Honda be open to GAC and Dongfeng. This is considered to be the company's core technology secrets. In terms of autonomy, although Keli is pushing forward the CHS hybrid system, it is now faced with three linked problems of scale, trust, and cost. The so-called three-linked ring problem means that other companies do not want to use the Geely property of Keliyuan not to purchase, but only Geely uses it on its own, and the scale is too small. If the scale is small, the cost cannot be reduced to Toyota's level, and the cost is higher. Increased the difficulty of the adoption of external car companies. To be honest, HEV is now what you want to use and can't use! 3, HEV face 48V and PHEV on the folder under attack The current 5,000 yuan cost of the 48V system is still at a relatively high level, because at present it is basically still in the initial stage of installation. However, if 48V reaches the scale of 1 million units, its cost will be significantly reduced. Zhidian Motor expects this price to increase. Reduced to 3,500 yuan. The reason is that the 48V system cost mainly comes from batteries, motors, and PCUs. The battery will naturally decrease with the expansion of new energy lithium batteries. The same is true for motors, and the biggest benefit of scale is the significant change in the manufacturing cost of PCUs. You may want to ask, that HEV will not? In fact, HEV and 48V, PHEV, EV battery requirements are really different, HEV batteries pay more attention to power density (this is a major reason for Toyota and other nickel-hydrogen), PHEV, etc. focus on energy density (the pursuit of cruising range) . There is no direct link between the two. The cost of 48V is dropping, and the single HEV is difficult to change. This is a downswing. The PHEV's score attribute also generates a clip on the HEV. It is reported that Toyota has already started to consider that converting domestic cars to PHEVs in order to get points. Of course, this is not a difficult task. After all, THS design has this consideration. 4. The electricity demand brought by intelligentization can be satisfied by 48V For car companies, the current intelligence has two roles, one is to meet user needs; the second is to increase the premium space. However, intelligence will bring about a significant increase in the power load, which is a severe test for the vehicle's electrical system. Category Part Name Chassis Electric shift brake Electric Power Steering Wheel (EPS) Electronic Stability System ESP Automatic lifting and other Powertrain cooling fan Fuel pump Pump Air Conditioning System PTC heater Electric air conditioning compressor Blower Glass heater Body system Lighting system Power amplifier Intelligent system ACC, FCW, AEB, BSD, TSR, IHC, LCA, LDW, etc. There is no doubt that traditional vehicles need to be able to meet the original demand for electricity, and the new generation of electricity consumption brought by intelligent, 12V battery is not enough. Although the HEV can be satisfied, the 48V system can also be satisfied. In this regard, HEV does not account for any advantage. Fourth, prospects Although in the traditional fuel vehicle market, the 48V system has indeed demonstrated its affordability, convenience, and necessity. However, this does not mean that the 48V system has begun to enter a stage of large-scale outbreaks. For the market prospects, Zhidian Automobile has made the following predictions: : 1, 2021 will be the time for the actual outbreak of the 48V system. The first three years are to make savings. The reason why this is said is because 2021 will cancel the fuel consumption accounting concession for new energy vehicles (ie, 532), and power consumption accounting will be further clarified, leading to further increase in fuel consumption pressure. From 2018 to 2020, auto companies will firmly select new energy sources. The traditional vehicle market is only to abandon HEV and focus on 48V. 48V will increase slowly at this stage, but the market share will hardly exceed 20%. The key burst of 2,48V is the A-class market. It is inevitable that all A00s will be converted to pure electric power. The market space of Class B and above is already very small. The small-sized SUVs have pure electric solutions. The compact and above SUVs can take PHEVs into consideration. Therefore, it is a large-scale, high-premium capacity that is truly suitable for 48V. Heavy-duty A-Class vehicles with high fuel consumption. 3. It is not possible for HEV to intercept 48V in the A-class market, but the network-based vehicles and light commercial vehicles are expanding. With the research and implementation of the commercial vehicle integration policy, coupled with the inherent fuel economy sensitivity of light commercial vehicles, HEV has a certain attraction in this market. In addition, the rise of the online car market will also be of interest to HEVs for 2-3 years of cost recovery expectations. Finally, make several suggestions: The first is that while 48V is a take-out, it is ruined by a lot of corruption and there must be countermeasures. 48V is like a fast, easy, and inexpensive takeaway. It cannot be dependent on these reasons. Otherwise it is not good for your health. Independent brands must increase system integration and increase the research of integrated capabilities and the cultivation of independent component suppliers. For example, Wanxiang A123 and Ningde era are already doing 48V batteries, and they must be properly leaned to prevent core profits from being transferred. . The second is to strengthen the expansion of the 48V system. 48V system and PHEV are not completely contradictory, independent brands can consider including but not limited to P0+P4 and other programs (the Great Wall Pi4 platform is this program, only P0 only uses BSG, useless full 48V), through the autonomous P4 To grasp the power of the 48V system. The third is to speed up the upgrade of the powertrain platform. Whether it is 48V or HEV, it is the optimization and supplement of the original powertrain, and the core is still in the powertrain itself. The previous independent brands still used excessively old engine technology. The penetration rate of GDI and other technologies is not high. To accelerate the pace of development, we must aim at the indicators of the "Energy-saving and New Energy Vehicle Technology Roadmap" planning. Accelerate progress, achieve better performance in energy saving and consumption reduction, and reduce or even completely eliminate pressure from negative integration of fuel consumption. Jilin Hongda Trading Co., Ltd , https://www.xytruckpart.com
