New Energy Vehicle "Ten Year Plan" "Pregnant"

The "Energy Conservation and New Energy Vehicle Industry Development Plan (2011-2020)" (hereinafter referred to as the "Ten-year Plan"), which is known as the pulse of the development of new energy vehicles in China, was released after the release of the draft for consultation in October last year for various reasons. Has been "grounded", the rumors of the introduction of the timetable from the end of last year to the end of June this year, and then spread to the end of this year, which also makes the pace of new energy for many local car companies is declining.

A reporter from the Securities Times recently learned from a person involved in the preparation of the plan that the coordination of the "10-year plan" that has been repeatedly revised has already been completed. The State Council is in the process of finalizing approval, and will not be required to wait until the end of the year. It will be introduced soon, when China's new energy vehicles will be released. The path of development will be more clear.

Controversy over the technical route Many people in the industry believe that the reason why the "Ten-year Plan" has not been introduced is that the definition of new energy vehicles has been controversial. This has led to disagreements among various departments.

For the definition of new energy vehicles, it was not clear in the "Auto Industry Adjustment and Revitalization Plan" that was first introduced in 2009 that hybrid vehicles, pure electric vehicles, and fuel cell vehicles are collectively referred to as energy-saving and new energy vehicles.

Later, a series of energy-saving and new energy vehicle demonstration and promotion policies clearly stated that new energy vehicles mainly refer to plug-in hybrid power and pure electric power, while hybrid power is classified as energy-saving vehicles, and there are also differences in the compensation standards for private cars. Large - The maximum subsidy for each plug-in hybrid and pure electric vehicle is 50,000-60,000 yuan, while non-plugged ordinary hybrid vehicles can only be subsidized by 3,000 yuan in a one-time fixed amount.

The government’s policy guidance and financial support are undoubtedly the biggest driving force for the development of new energy vehicles in the early stages. However, the huge differences in the subsidy standards have led the industry to misunderstand that the country only supports electric vehicles instead of hybrid vehicles. Some companies even hesitate to give up. Hybrid technology research and development went straight to the pure electric "theme."

In response, Dong Yang, Secretary General of the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, repeatedly emphasized to reporters that the government does not support hybrid power but instead supports it by classifying it as an energy-saving technology category. "Hybrid vehicles have lower technical costs and can be profitable through tax incentives, and are easily promoted. Nowadays, pure electric vehicles and plug-in hybrid vehicles and fuel cell vehicles have poor performance-to-price ratios. In the early stages, they must have financial subsidies to be able to The market is selling. So now the division of new energy vehicles is determined by the combination of advanced technology, economic weakness and high cost."

In fact, in the draft of the 10-year plan, new energy vehicles have been defined as pure electric vehicles, plug-in hybrid vehicles, and fuel cell vehicles, and the stage goals for new energy vehicles and hybrid vehicles have been listed separately. It is clear that pure electric vehicles will be the main strategic orientation for the transformation of China's automobile industry, and the industrialization of pure electric vehicles and plug-in hybrid vehicles will be promoted. In the near future, hybrid-powered vehicles will be the focus and efforts will be made to popularize energy-saving vehicles.

Earlier, some people in the industry believed that the reason for the difficulties in the “Ten-year Plan” was mainly due to the fact that all departments and parties could not unify their views on the development routes and policies of new energy vehicles. For example, the Ministry of Science and Technology tended to give priority to the development of electric vehicles, and it was specifically formulated. The "12th Five-Year Plan" for electric vehicles is a special plan for the development of science and technology, while the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology tends to "walk on two legs" for energy-saving cars and new energy vehicles. The struggle for the interests of various departments has led to poor division of labor and cooperation, which is also the main reason affecting the development of new energy vehicles.

However, according to Ye Shengji, Assistant Secretary General of the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, the technical line of new energy vehicles has always been very clear, that is, "three vertical (hybrid, pure electric, fuel cell) three horizontal (battery, motor, electronic control) "Strategic layout. How each car company specifically does it depends on the state of energy development in each region. The general principle is that energy is diversified.

Technology and supporting construction are focused on the three core technologies of battery, motor and electronic control of new energy vehicles. Battery technology determines the pace of industrialization of new energy vehicles. This is also the same problem faced by all countries that develop electric vehicles. Miao Wei, Minister of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, once said: “We must make major breakthroughs in the energy density, longevity, and safety of power batteries to realize the industrialization and scale of (new energy vehicles).”

In an interview with the Securities Times reporter, Feng Fei, head of the Ministry of Industry and Economic Development of the State Council Development Research Center, said that the core indicator of the battery is the energy density, which is how much energy per unit of weight (how many watts per kilogram), China's index and the international ratio does not lag behind However, compared with traditional gasoline vehicles, the disadvantage is that short-term mileage is short. The current level of technology determines that the development of electric vehicles can only be in the city's short-distance traffic or bus system.

“The biggest disadvantage of China is the lack of basic battery research. It is unlikely that we will significantly increase the performance index on the basis of existing materials.” For the United States and Japan are looking for a breakthrough in a new generation of battery technology, Feng Fei said that China has a university and Research institutions are also studying, but the combination of production, study and research is not very good.

“A lot of companies have impetuous sentiments, and there is a high demand for lithium batteries. At present, lithium batteries are more mature in mobile phones and laptops, but high-power lithium batteries have instability. How to overcome this bottleneck is a problem.” China Automotive Engineering When the Institute’s deputy secretary-general Han Lei accepted an interview with the Securities Times’ reporter, the government’s support for battery technology will increase in the future, and companies will increase investment in R&D.

Feng Fei also believes that the safety of batteries requires a high degree of attention, and regulatory authorities need to strictly set standards. In addition, in addition to the technical bottleneck urgently needed to be broken, the construction of ancillary service facilities is also a major difficulty at present, especially the imperfections of charging facilities have become a major bottleneck in market applications. The construction of ancillary service facilities is a key link in expanding market applications, mainly charging facilities and power exchange modes. This requires mobilizing the enthusiasm of all parties and establishing a win-win business model that can withstand market inspection.

Regarding the concern that if the charging of millions of electric vehicles will impact the grid system at the same time, Feng Fei believes that although there are only a small number of vehicles at the current stage, there is still no impact on the grid, but it is necessary to take into consideration the measures for large-scale application in the future. In addition to the international use of real-time electricity prices, policies guide the use of electricity when the low point of charging, the technical solution is to change the mode, the wind energy, solar energy and other intermittent renewable energy generation to store the battery charge, can solve the grid The problem of insufficient electricity during power generation and frequent use of electricity when not generating electricity can also partially offset the weakness of charging facilities.

In order to further solve the core technical problems, the Ministry of Science and Technology recently decided that the "12th Five-Year Plan" for electric vehicles in the development plan of the "12th Five-Year Plan" period will focus on technically increasing research and development efforts, focusing on breakthroughs in battery safety and consistency. In terms of durability and durability, we focus on developing reliability-adapted, cost-effective electric vehicles. At the same time, efforts were made to increase infrastructure construction and support the construction of charging networks with appropriate pilot cities. In addition, we must speed up the study of technical standards and improve the construction of the standards system. In the forthcoming "Ten-year Plan", the key core technology solutions and policy funding support will also be the focus.