Macroeconomic policy fine-tunes car consumption or will loosen

The central bank announced last weekend that starting today, the reserve requirement ratio will be lowered by 0.5%, which will release about 400 billion yuan of funds for the market. This change is a small positive for the auto industry that has been depressing for a year. This year's domestic "focus on expanding domestic demand, not consumer demand," the tone will also be conducive to the automotive industry as the first major consumer demand.

People in the auto industry are looking forward to the fact that auto consumption can take the lead in “relaxing”, even as the end of 2008 and early 2009 became the national leader in stimulating domestic demand.

According to the statistics released by the National Bureau of Statistics, in the commodity retail industry in 2011, the growth rate of autos was 14.6%, and the growth rate was down by 20.2% from the previous year, which was the industry with the largest decline.

This is the second time since the central bank cut the reserve requirement ratio for the first time in three years on December 5 last year. This is also the first time since this year. Economic analysts believe that this downgrade also confirms that the deposit reserve ratio will enter a downward adjustment cycle. One of the reasons for the reduction of the deposit reserve ratio is that the real economy has a downward trend, and the national real estate price has fallen in an all-time sequential manner. Iron and steel, machinery, and automobile industries are basically in a tightening process, and the readjustment is intended to ease the pressure of economic downturn. .

Therefore, the automotive industry generally believes that the fine-tuning of this policy will be conducive to the improvement of automobile demand. It is expected that the year-on-year growth of automobile sales in January will be the low point in the first half of the year. This year, the automobile industry has maintained its momentum of growth.

The second favorable macroeconomic aspect for the automotive industry is the expansion of domestic demand. On February 20, the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee held a meeting to discuss the government work report. The meeting pointed out that it is necessary to “continuably handle the relationship between maintaining stable and rapid economic development, adjusting the economic structure, and managing inflation expectations, accelerating the transformation of economic development methods and economic restructuring, and focusing on expanding domestic demand, especially consumer demand,” and We must continue to implement a proactive fiscal policy and a prudent monetary policy, and appropriately pre-adjust the fine-tuning in accordance with changes in the situation."

"Efforts to expand domestic demand, especially consumer demand," will inevitably require the auto industry to maintain a good state of growth. Automobile sales account for about 20% of the total retail sales of social consumer goods, and it is truly the first major consumer demand.

The amount of newly added materials in Beijing increased substantially in the first half of last year. As a result of the withdrawal of incentive policies such as purchase tax incentives, the impact of the country’s macroeconomic controls, the increase in fuel prices, the implementation of a blockade policy in some cities, and the earthquake in Japan, the automobile market was adversely affected. The rapid decline has led to a continuous decline in the total retail sales of consumer goods in the country.

In January of this year, the National Bureau of Statistics announced that the total retail sales of consumer goods in the year 2011 was 1,812.26 billion yuan, a nominal increase of 17.1% over the previous year (an actual increase of 11.6% after deducting price factors). In the retail of goods, the retail sales of goods of enterprises (units) above designated size was 7816.4 billion yuan, an increase of 23.2%. Among them, the growth of autos was 14.6%, and the growth rate was down by 20.2% from the previous year, which was the industry with the largest decline.

At the beginning of the year, relevant officials of the Ministry of Commerce estimated that the total retail sales of consumer goods in China will increase by more than 14% in 2012. In the "12th Five-Year Plan" period, the total retail sales of consumer goods is to reach 30 trillion yuan. These all constitute the future of the automobile market.

After a year of deep adjustment, the consumer energy of passenger cars has re-accumulated. According to news from Beijing, Beijing’s first minibus index was very popular in 2012. More than 870,000 application indicators participated in the shakeout, and the success rate was a new low, about 2.3%. In January this year, the city sold a total of 52,300 new cars, which was twice the year-on-year increase of 17,900 vehicles.

According to Cui Dongshu, an analyst at CUCH, Beijing added 170,000 new cars last year. However, the number of new cars in Beijing this year will return to the rated number of 240,000 units. The increase in the number of cars purchased by private cars will add 120,000 units to the Beijing auto market in the first half of the year, compared with less than 60,000 units in the first half of last year. “This abnormal doubling is an important contribution to the increase in the auto market, which also drives the growth of the national auto market to return to a faster level.”

“Although China’s economy continued to be in a soft landing process in 2012, the passenger car market has recovered ahead of schedule.” CSR Secretary-General Rao Da predicts that domestic vehicle sales in the domestic market will reach 18.56 million units this year, an increase of 12%.