Machinery industry growth rate will fall back to 15% in 2011

On November 27, Cai Weici, executive vice president of the China Machinery Industry Association, stated in Beijing that the growth rate of the machinery industry in 2010 is expected to increase by 30% year-on-year, but the growth rate in 2011 will fall back to about 15%, and the profit growth rate will fall. It will be more obvious.

He said that the reason is because the 2010 base is too high, and the 2010 growth rate is declining month by month, which will have an adverse impact on 2011; from the sub-sectors, the machinery industry's "engine" cars and engineering machinery base is too high, New orders for power generation equipment and heavy-duty machine tools have dropped significantly, which will affect the next year's operation. In addition, the trend of global commodity price increases will push up the cost of the industry next year.

According to the data provided by the Machinery Industry Association, from January to October this year, the output value of the automotive industry increased by 40% year-on-year, and the output value of the construction machinery industry increased by 50.30% year-on-year. It is the two best performing sub-sectors in the machinery industry, but at the same time it is also profitable month by month. The most declining sub-industry.

“This high growth trend is unlikely to be reproduced in 2011, and the economic operation of the machinery industry is undergoing cooling changes due to hot cooling,” said Cai Weici.

“The rapid growth of fixed asset investment for many years has caused serious overcapacity of middle and low-end mechanical products. Under the form of slower growth in demand next year, the contradiction of oversupply will become more acute, pressure competition and cost increase will increase, and pressure can be imagined. "A mechanical industry analyst told reporters.

In the international market, Cai Weici believes that the same is not optimistic. "In 2010, foreign exchange earnings are expected to grow at a rate of about 30% year-on-year, but the foreign trade surplus is only about 3 billion US dollars, which is 70% lower than in 2009, including a trade deficit of 269 million US dollars in September."

"On the one hand, the rapid growth of imports has greatly squeezed the room for growth of domestic high-end equipment; on the other hand, it has encountered price competitions among international competitors and competed for users." Cai Weici believes that with the appreciation of the renminbi, the export prices of China's machinery products will rise relatively. It directly affects my international competitiveness.