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1. The background of the adjustment of vehicle trade-in subsidies standards. In 2009, the State issued the “Measurement for the replacement of old cars†(Caijian [2009] No. 333), but the subsidy standards are low. Many owners think that it is better to resell them in advance. Therefore, the effect of policies is less than that of small-displacement passenger cars. In order to improve the vehicle replacement policy, increase the attractiveness of policies, further accelerate the retirement of old cars, increase automobile consumption, promote energy conservation and emission reduction, and effectively use resources, the State has increased the standard for vehicle replacement subsidies. The new subsidy standard is determined based on actual market conditions and it is expected that the effect of the policy will be significantly improved.
2. Subsidy standards have generally been raised and the scope of benefits has been expanded. Except for those cars and special operating vehicles of 1 litre or less that maintain the original subsidy standards, the subsidy standards for other models have been improved to varying degrees. At the same time, the termination date calculated for the year of use of the vehicle is adjusted from the cancellation date to the date when the vehicle is sold to a designated scrapped automobile recycling and dismantling enterprise established according to law, which means that the scope of benefit will be expanded.
3, large-scale vehicles benefit more clearly. In comparison, the increase in subsidies for commercial vehicles is relatively large, while the increase in subsidies for passenger vehicles is relatively small. This is mainly due to the fact that small-displacement passenger vehicles have achieved explosive growth in 2009 and do not require stronger policies. stimulate. At the same time, large vehicles (heavy trucks, large passengers, 1.35 liters and above displacement cars) increased by 200%.
The sedan car consumers can use the old-for-new vehicle to scrap the vehicle, and can enjoy a maximum of 18,000 subsidies. Since the self-owned brand cars have more products of 1.35 liters or more, and the product prices are relatively low, consumers can purchase a new self-owned brand car with little funds, and it is expected that this type of car will benefit more significantly.
4. Improve the sales forecast for 2010. In the automotive industry investment strategy report that we completed in November 2009, we forecast the sales of vehicles in 2010 to be 14.08 million, mainly based on the judgment that the passenger vehicle excise tax policy will no longer expand. The actual situation is the 2010 small displacement passenger car use. The car consumption tax rate has increased from 5% in the previous year to 7.5%. The latest car replacement rate for the trade-in policy has been increased. Therefore, we increase our sales forecast for 2010 to 15.02 million vehicles, which is an increase of about 10% from 2009.
As the impact of large-scale vehicles on industry profits is even more important, it is expected that the profit growth of the auto industry will be more secure next year. We estimate that the growth rate of the auto industry in 2010 is about 14.5%, and the profit growth is about 12.9%.
5. Maintain the recommended investment rating for the automotive industry. All sub-sectors have continued development momentum, among which the adjustment of old-for-new trade policies has benefited large-scale commercial vehicles. At the same time, the consumption of such products in 2009 is relatively small. Therefore, we continue to favor commercial vehicle investment opportunities. The relevant beneficiary companies are heavy in China. Steam, Weichai Power, Weifu Hi-Tech, Yutong Bus. At the same time, the old-for-new policy has strengthened the sustainability of the growth of passenger vehicles, and the product structure of sedan continues to improve. The related companies are FAW Xiali, FAW Car and Shanghai Auto. Following the boom cycle of the entire vehicle business and the recovery of the overseas automobile market, the growth momentum of spare parts is even stronger. We are optimistic about the investment opportunities of Fuyao Glass, Dongan Power, Zhongding, Ningbo Huaxiang and Huayu Automobile.
6, risk tips. The stimulating effect of the automobile industry policy is diminishing; the increase in the cost of raw materials causes the gross profit of the company to decline.