December 23, 2024

2008 Commercial Vehicle Market: Half Fire and Half Sea Water


If the short-term summary of the 2008 commercial vehicle market has elapsed, perhaps half of the flames, half of the sea is more appropriate.

In the first half of 2008, commercial vehicle companies seemed to be roasted on fire and were suffering. On the one hand, they were demanding cars for the market; on the other hand, due to limited production capacity, parts, and supply chains, they were in the mouth. The fat can't swallow.

In the second half of the year, due to the construction of the Olympic Games, the overdraft of emission upgrades, the impact of the domestic double defense policy, and the impact of the international financial tsunami, the market demand has turned sharply, and has receded like a tide.

The eight events that occurred in 2008 actually affected the commercial vehicle market in 2008.

Frozen rain and snow disaster

According to the National Meteorological Administration, the southern frozen rain and snow that began on January 12, 2008 was once in 50 years. Rain and snow have taken commercial vehicle companies in the affected areas to a surprise and also taught them something.

Snowstorms have severely affected the production and product circulation of enterprises in the affected areas, but also exposed some manufacturers' parts supply system defects. Meteorological disasters disrupted the logistics system, obstructed the delivery of major parts and components, and halted production of the entire production line. This explains that manufacturers have no emergency measures and backup suppliers for important parts and components, and there are problems in the convergence of logistics, procurement, and production planning systems.

Through this incident, manufacturers should gradually modify the production security system and establish transit stations in major hub cities.

Wenchuan earthquake

"5?12" has already passed more than seven months. I believe that many people still feel grief about wanting to come.

What is gratifying is that, after the Wenchuan earthquake, domestic commercial vehicle companies not only donated money, but sent vehicles and even personnel rushed to the scene to rescue the disaster. In this battle of unity, Chinese commercial vehicle companies have demonstrated a strong sense of social responsibility and national entrepreneurship.

The history of China's commercial vehicle companies will not forget you and the reality will not forget you. The director of the Shifang City Development and Reform Bureau said that the future reconstruction of Shifang City will require about 80 billion yuan in funds. It is estimated that a total of trillion yuan will be invested in the earthquake-stricken areas. A huge amount of investment will lead to a surge in demand for trucks, and the trucks used are of course the products of domestic commercial vehicle companies that once helped people in the disaster-stricken areas.

Raw material prices rose sharply

In March 2008, the CPI (consumer price index) and PPI (industrial product price index) hit a record high. The prices of high-quality iron ore and steel products have risen sharply, and prices of most other production factors involving automobile manufacturing have also risen to varying degrees. Among them, chemical products prices rose 1.2 times, ferrous metal prices rose 43%, non-ferrous metals rose 23%, rubber rose 19%.

In the “big rise” situation, in the face of fierce market competition, domestic commercial vehicle companies only slightly increase prices or maintain the original prices, as much as possible to self-digest cost pressures. On the one hand, vehicle companies use their own strong ability to pass on costs, and they have to increase profits to themselves, so that the rising costs are transmitted to the market terminals as little as possible; on the other hand, companies optimize production processes and implement advanced production and supply chains. Management system, using lean production and other means to save costs.

The company is struggling to learn its merits. When the price of production factors is operating at a high level, the “internal strength” of the enterprise is enhanced, which will benefit the enterprise “for life”. In addition, companies can earn extra profits when factor prices fall back into the normal range.

In fact, this step is to be taken sooner or later, the market is not a good time to attend, it is not too late!

Beijing Olympics

According to a report by the United States Goldman Sachs, from 2002 to 2008, China raised its GDP by an additional 0.3% due to the Beijing Olympic Games. It was precisely through the “pre-Olympic era” that China was like a major construction site in the past six years. China’s commercial vehicle companies have thus achieved a leap-forward development and have achieved an amazing four-year prosperity period. (International usually It is 2 to 3 years). In particular, it is worth mentioning that from January to June 2008, a group of projects focused on speeding up construction and partially achieved market glory in the first half of the year.

However, on the eve of the Olympic Games and during the period, due to the completion of most of the projects and fulfillment of the promise of the Green Olympics, the freight demand in the domestic transportation market drastically decreased and some of them experienced excess capacity. Since mid-June 2008, the domestic commercial vehicle market has been rapidly turned down due to serious prior-phase overdrafts.

National three emissions

In order to reduce the damage to the atmosphere and implement the international environmental protection treaty, since July 1, 2008, China's N2 class vehicles (over 3.5 tons of trucks) formally implement the three national emission standards.

Considering the comprehensive considerations of the use cost, maintenance, accessory parts, and oil applicability, many domestic users have chosen to “pick up” the car before July 1. This overdraft consumption also partially contributed to the commercial vehicle market in the first half of 2008. The glory.

But the angels can turn into devils, and Xiao Cheng loses. The industry generally believes that overdraft consumption in the country’s three transitions is one of the main factors that led to sluggish sales in the second half of the year.

When it comes to the country’s three transitions, we have to talk about EGR. EGR is a commercial vehicle engine independently developed by China National Heavy Duty Truck (SINOSTEEL), which was first introduced to meet the country's three emission requirements using electronically controlled monomer pump (exhaust gas recirculation) technology. EGR differs from other manufacturers' methods of using high-pressure common rail to meet emissions, especially the comparative advantage of being 10,000 to 20,000 yuan cheaper than similar products on the market. Once it is launched, it is like a thunder in a sunny day, immediately causing the industry to “blew up” nest".

Whether EGR meets emission upgrade requirements, we will not comment for the time being. After a 30-year baptism of reforms and opening up, China National Heavy Duty Truck Corporation (Shouqi) has been able to be market-oriented, and it is worthy of recognition that it is good at responding to changes and has flexible market thinking.

Controversy over EGR has been going on since its birth. Its role, its significance, and its value may require the precipitation of time and commentary on history.

Higher export market threshold

In recent years, the export of Chinese commercial vehicle companies to Russia has been very good. Although Vietnam is the largest exporter of commercial vehicles in China, Russia is the country with the largest trade volume, with the highest gold content and huge potential.

However, in May 2008, Russia increased its access threshold, and China’s exports to Russia fell to the ground—the volume of exports and trade volume decreased significantly. On this occasion, in addition to efforts to complete certification, domestic companies should also reflect on the crux of the past. In some countries, China’s commercial vehicles are synonymous with low quality substandard prices, and the overall image is not good. There are vicious competition behaviors between export companies that have lowered their prices, resulting in low profit margins and inability to provide relevant services.

These are the problems that need to be solved in the domestic commercial vehicle industry.

The international financial crisis spread over the upgrading of domestic industrial structure, coupled with the spread of the international financial crisis, the commercial vehicle market in the second half of 2008 was lamented by the superposition effect of internal and external risks.

According to statistics from the China Automobile Industry Association, as of November 2008, the domestic commercial vehicle industry experienced a double year-on-year drop in both sales and sales for the fourth consecutive month; heavy trucks also saw a double year-on-year decline in production and sales for the fifth consecutive month, and the decline has continued to increase. trend.

Objectively speaking, in the face of the overheated economic situation in the first half of the year, it is understandable that the country proposes a double-prevention policy, adopts a tightening monetary policy, timely transforms China’s economic growth pattern, and promotes the upgrading of the industrial structure. Like the state and the enterprise, we cannot just see the achievements in development and we must also pay attention to the problems that exist in it so that we can achieve sustainable development.

Without the deepening of the subprime mortgage crisis and the global spread, the Chinese economy may be able to successfully achieve a soft landing in the transition and achieve the stated goals of regulation and control. But the creation of people, like the growing company, our growing government did not expect this unprecedented financial tsunami to be so fierce and so destructive.

However, at the end of 2008, in view of the situation at that time, the state reviewed the economic situation in the Central Economic Work Conference in November and made timely adjustments to the control policies. Li Yizhong, Minister of Industry and Information Technology, stated at the end of the year that specific measures and measures to support the development of the auto industry, including the commercial vehicle industry, need to be deliberated. Li Yizhong promised at the same time that it will introduce specific measures within the shortest possible time.

Fuel tax reform

On December 5, 2008, the state publicly solicited opinions from the society on the “Reform Program for Refined Product Oil Taxes and Fees (Draft for Soliciting Opinions)” and implemented the “Program” on January 1, 2009 to eliminate road maintenance fees and highway transportation management fees and There are three tolls such as highway passenger and freight surcharges, and secondary road tolls will be phased out.

After the announcement of the reform of fuel taxation and fees, various domestic commercial vehicle companies have launched new fuel-saving products or are preparing to launch such products. Each of them is also surprisingly unanimous in its publicity caliber. The announcement of the “Reform of Oil Products Tax Reform Fees (Draft for Soliciting Opinions)” in 2008 pointed out the way for future commercial vehicle companies to research and develop products and upgrade their technologies.

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